Why I Think The OUYA Will Succeed (And Get Better)

The Ouya has 3 potential outcomes:

1) It fails and all that spent money on it are out of luck.
2) It is handled properly and becomes a huge hit. This is the ideal scenario.
3) It is handled poorly and becomes a huge hit. This can be horrible for the game industry, mainly for indies. If players become accustomed to console games being worth 99c or free, and reject anything else, we are in for a non-future of indie gaming. Sure... there WILL be games done by desperate "me too" kids, but no one will be able to justify spending resources developing games. And it will happen if Ouya allows it to happen. And so far, although we know zero about the pricing model they will allow, they have openly stated they will support the freemium model. That alone should scare us big time.

 

Isn't it already happening with the appstore ? (relatively)

 

Actually, there was a semi-recent survey of players saying they would be willing to pay between $5 - $20 for OUYA games.
The race to the bottom *could* potentially happen, but I think more likely is that other developers will see that 99c game, laugh at it, and keep their pricing intact at $10 or whatever. If it's a good game, 99c just isn't profitable for the amount of work that probably went into it, and if it's a bad game 99c isn't profitable because players will try it out, see how bad it is, and wipe it off of their OUYA without ever having spent a dime.

 

Michael Pachter thinks OUYA will do well:
http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/ckt0dr/pach-attack--app-market-crash---ouya-almighty-

I tend to agree with him, even if they don't ship 1 million units I'll still buy one to play with it.

 

I feel that what helps this is definitely the fact that it is on the console and people are more accepting of shelling out more money, expecting higher quality in the console market. Let's not talk about XBLIG though... *shivers*

 

Yes, it is. But the App Store is still just phone-gaming, there was no "mobile phone gaming market" to destroy, since technically it started with it. But yea, you can see it's insanely hard to actually make a living as an iOS developer these days, you need insane levels of luck, the patience to release a lot of garbage that may pile up income on you, or release freemium and abuse the compulsive nature of a few players, hoping you will get a few to give you a few thousands to play your farm game.

Mind you, It’s coming to a point where even freemium is not working out well… look at the whole Punch Quest saga.

The PC market is still a bit better off, perhaps because it's not as "sexy" to make Mac/Windows games as it's doing mobiles, but give a platform enough luster and full control, well, the indies with zero sense of economics will just race to the bottom and destroy the economy.

 

It does not matter what people say they are willing to pay, if indie developers start trying to race to the bottom (and they will if allowed) the playerbase will get used to paying the new bottom 99c "standard."

When the App Store launched, games were, in average, about $9.99. Few medium-sized studios doing games were charging what they thought was fair. Eventually the 99c boom happened and their sales drained, they all were forced to join the ship and go 99c too. This is not uncharted territory, its well mapped and the only way the Ouya team can prevent it is by forcing a $5 increment price scheme ($4.99, $9.99, $14.99, etc.)

At the end of the day there will be good 99c games, and players will rahter spend a full afternoon testing bad 99c games until they find the fun ones, than even bother with a $10 game. They MAY try those still, and then likely keep them in some "want" queue until they see a price drop.

 

I think all this anticipation about races to the bottom etc is completely null and void because ALL games on Ouya will be FREE.

I don't think there's going to be like a `lite version` that you get for free and `paid version at 99c` that you have to buy up-front. That's not a free-to-play model. The model indicates there will be ONE product, it will have ZERO price tag right away, and then something that you do `in game` will govern what extra you pay for. Do you get that? There will NOT be any prices while you're browsing for games or while you're installing the ones you choose!! In this scenario the race to the bottom has already finished before the console even launches because everything has no price tag up-front. This will move the whole perception of `what is a game worth` into way more subtler terrority, concealed within the gameplay, hidden in the levels, tucked away in little in-game shops and menus, etc.. and nobody is going to really get an easy up-front handle on what a given game is `worth` because they will all be filled with tonnes of possible extra add-ons and things to buy to expand/add-to/enhance the game and its longevity. Heck you could even have one extremely super long game where you have to buy numerous episodes.. .. but it'll all happen inside the game AFTER you've already played it a while and AFTER you've already been entertained/sales-pitch-delivered/hooked/addicted so that you are more compelled to fork out that 99c or that 4.99 or that 29.99 or that 1 cent per token virtual currency or whatever the developers come up with. My point mainly is the entire platform is free-to-play, every game has a free portion up-front, and all of the whole issue of payment is going to become waaaaay more subtle and nebulous and hard to get a sense of. Like for example, how much does Draw Something cost, given you can spend lots of money on buying extra coins to buy stuff in the game? Is it a 99c game, or a $100 game? So I think we need to stop talking about races to the bottom and up-front costs because to me that's not even going to be part of the business model, platform-wide.

I think developers will start to implement much more incremental, fine-grained, micro-transaction styles of monetization which just sort of `add up over time`, whether it be some kind of time-based subscription or just a very small cost to obtain special items/access to content in the game. It'll be more like there is almost no price tag attached to anything. "Yes, please charge my account 1 cent so I can buy some shields" "Yes, I lost the shields, I'd like to buy more shields please - that'll be 1 cent". Whatever. The days of a big hefty one-time-only price tag are seriously numbered. ... or not, depending on what the developers decide.

Just a thought.. having no price tag up front and the perception that this will create that `all games are free` will in some way level the playing field, perhaps lowering the barrier to entry considerably for titles that would've cost more, or even rendering extremely cheap/crap titles seeming like they're worth more money than they normally would be. It really changes the game, pun intended. Perhaps then games will actually be paid for more based on their merit and proving themselves by being played, rather than what the developer thinks they're worth etc. In a sense that does give more power to the people, although I'm sure companies will start looking to optimize the monetizing efficiency of games just as website owners optimize ecommerce sites to produce the most sales.

[Edit] another afterthought, I suppose developers could put some kind of fixed rate payment option right on the first title screen within the game, even if it doesn't show in the game store, asking for bigtime or race-to-bottom money while also offering a little button for `try it for free`.[/edit]

 

By "every game will be free" they likely mean either "every game is free to try, pay to fully unlock (similar to xbox live) or "why the hell do they think I will waste my time with the console?"

You are describing the Ouya as being forcefully Freemium store. If true, that really will kill any interest I have in the device as both, a developer or a gamer. (Up to now my issue was only skepticism.)

Proven already not to work in real world tests. At the end of the day only those that abuse their players in torture slow grind fests that motivate spending end up having the advantage. Again, look at Punch Quest and it's casual but fun advancement system compared to the games apparently designed by addiction specialists for maximum dollar leaching.

Gameloft also tried this (at one point they planned to release all their games this way and it seemed to do so bad they just stuck to paid-up-front or full freemium), and actually nothing prevents you from doing this in the iPhone today (give a base game for free and request IAP to unlock the full game) other than the fact that everyone that has attempted that gets millions of downloads and less than 1% conversion rate.

You seem to think that freemium games make money because players actually evaluate "how much fun is this worth?", that's not how it works. Almost no one that rationalizes their spending ends up departing with their money. The money in these situations end up coming from players that get caught in the gambling loop, that frenzy mentality where they lose all rationality and just think they want the reward now.

 

No. All games on Ouya must have some free aspect to them. This can be freemium, free demos, IAP, etc. They've repeated this several times.

So yes, while browsing the Ouya store, you will be able to just purchase a game right away if you already know you like it. Otherwise, you'll be able to sample it beforehand.

"“We're handing the reins over to the developer with only one condition: at least some gameplay has to be free... Developers can offer a free demo with a full-game upgrade, in-game items or powers, or ask you to subscribe.” ~Julie Uhrman

 

Yep... I predicted it... everyone is going to make an android game console:

These guys made 50k of their 100k goal.. TODAY yes.. their first day they made 50k.

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects...rtable-tv-games-console-ever?ref=home_popular

 

The statements of games only requiring a partially free portion are definitely the case.

However I remember reading somewhere that the store front will have no prices, because full game purchases will be handled with IAP. Could totally be wrong on that. If that is the case then the consumer cannot browse by price, and must choose what games they try by other factors... which I definitely think could be a good thing, or it could backfire, resulting in players getting tired of playing a game and then finding out it costs more than they are willing to pay. But then again it could get people to go through games they wouldn't have tried in the past because of the price tag. Who knows.

 

I don't think your quote proves anything contrary to what I said. Sounds more like semantics. You can't have a free aspect to a game if the entire game is paid for, and that means you have to have the free aspect FIRST before there is a payment, which means all games can be `begun` for free. However you later monetize it or what label you slap on it doesn't matter. I don't see anything there that suggests we're going to see pricing of any kind in the Ouya store.

Regarding `game stick`, looks sort of interesting, funny to see another andoid effort quite similar to Ouya in some ways. Less backing, overall. Lower funding goal. But we'll see how it shakes out.

 

The only difference between a standard trial/demo setup and the OUYA's setup is that the purchase happens in-game rather than on the store front. Are you saying that XBLA games don't count as having the entire game "paid for" since their trial/demo is a free aspect. I think it is a good deal from a consumer stand point that people don't have to just hand over their money first, it forces developers to make better games and convince people to put forth the money based on what was offered as free... be it a level, or a limited set of skills, etc.

 

Well there is an old article 2011 about freemium apps. Well I wonder if its going to be any better, otherwise you are just going to a smaller platform then either iOS or Droid (because there simply wont be that many ouyas).

http://blog.flurry.com/bid/67748/Co...Transaction-in-iOS-and-Android-Freemium-Games

 

Why is everyone getting hung up on the idea of freemium. That's not what this is. Developers decide how to price the game; they simply need to provide a free demo (or IAP, or freemium, or whatever they choose to do). That is not freemium. Its a demo. There's a difference.

 

There WILL be no prices in the store. Everything is handled through In-App Purchasing. This is mentioned many times in the official OUYA forums, and has been explained since the beginning. The store, however, will have app details that display the in-app purchases available to the player. I will try to edit this post with quotes when I have time, but I'm busy making my OUYA game right now

 

There are no official Ouya Forums, and no one from the Ouya team has said anything like that.

 

What are you talking about? There are official ouya forums for devs and many members of the team post on a regular basis. Mainly alautton, nick, and chamberlan. They've been up for a well since the odk was released.

 

There are many Ouya forums. There was even one, several months ago, claiming to be "official" (but he turned out to be a scammer). But those are all fan-operated. Ouya does not have an official forum.

If I'm mistaken, by all means, please post a link. I would also be interested in seeing where you read that there would be no prices on the Ouya store.

 

This is false. There is an official developer forum over at ouya.tv, and the ODK has been released.

http://www.ouya.tv/devs/
http://forums.ouya.tv

This is correct.

 

i think this is what he means http://forums.ouya.tv
just to add my two cents to this conversation i am very interested in the ouya as a gamer and a noob dev.

EDIT: not sure about the thread he's talking about

EDIT2: thinksquirrel beat me to posting the link

 

A message board does not a forum make.

Anyway, in the store, it will display IAP (as well as its price). If you're releasing a demo with a paid, full version, you add the full version unlock as an "Entitlement" IAP. So yes, the price is displayed in the store.

So while the sales pitch says that, technically, "every game is free", and therefore there is no initial price in the store, there are free demos with a displayed price for the full game.

 

@khanstruct, if you take a minute to register and check out the forums they linked, you would notice it is the official deal and it is indeed a forum. It may not be formated like a traditional one, but you can still create discussion threads and have people reply in it, thats the bulk of what a forum does.

 

Yet another potential competitor

This is no kickstarter, its' just a company releasing a sort of TV Android consoleish thingy with a gamepad and regular Google Play store.

 

It's Archos. The device will weigh 50 pounds, work flawlessly for a month, then explode. Also, once again, Google Play Store.

 

That GameStick thingy looks good, but I wonder what the processing power's like in comparison? Also not a big fan of the fact that the controller is a box. But maybe that's just me.

 

From Kotaku here an actual game playing on OUYA

So at least we now know it plays games

Edit: Just noticed a little familiar icon at 9 seconds in lol

 

Ah, sweet. Looks like the OUYA uses the touchpad for mouse navigation. That should make my menu design a hell of a lot easier! I wonder if the hardware cursor API works or if I'll have to settle for software cursors...

 

We've got our Ouya yesterday, it's actually really easy to integrate with Unity. We built a game on Android on Unity, and we were able to get it up on the Ouya in about 4 minutes. It seems like it could be a really neat tool, so I hope a lot of people pick up on it's development and make magic happen.

We developed an online services platform that works cross platform on Unity (or cross platform without Unity if you choose). You guys should check out our post here http://forum.unity3d.com/threads/16...s-amp-more-for-Unity3d!?p=1124612#post1124612 and let me know what you think.

We're looking to get as many Unity developers into the betas as possible, so email me @ mjodon@agoragames.com, reply here in the thread, or just sign up at hydra.agoragames.com. I'll be happy to answer any questions you guys might have.

 

Did you read the kotaku article probably where all the idiot commentors came from in that video.
http://kotaku.com/5973121/heres-an-actual-game-running-on-the-ouya?post=55812529

 

Oh my!

That is allot of idiots...

 

I'm interested in what the hackers will do w/ Ouya, it will probably be pretty epic.

 

Here's my game running on an OUYA, using the Unity package from the official ODK for its controls and stuff. My game is going to be an exclusive OUYA game, its gameplay is so fast it pretty much requires both a controller and a TV-sized screen. I can play it on my 7" tablet, but everything's just so tiny on that.

 

yet another possible competitor http://shield.nvidia.com

if they made it so you could play pc games anywhere i think this would completely kill the ouya

 

There's no way this thing will cost less than $300, the PC streaming doesn't work unless you have a GTX 650 at the minimum, and it's launching several months after the Ouya. This isn't competition for the Ouya at all and is instead just a mishmash of bad ideas.

 

I just want a dock for my smart phone that connects it to TV/controllers. I don't want another piece of hardware to upgrade.

 

Nice. Is that on actual hardware? Are they still letting devs order dev units?

 

The Shield is not a competitor. It won't even come close to killing the OUYA.
For one, the device is designed essentially like a PS Vita. As such, it is targeting an entirely different audience of gamers. Just as PCs aren't killing consoles, mobiles aren't killing consoles either.
Plus, it's probably going to have a much higher price tag.

 

I'm not interested in streaming like I said if they made something like this that could download and play pc games on its own (I like the design) with a good graphics card id pay more than 300 for it

 

Ok maybe not a competitor but another intresting piece of hard ware. Looks like this will be a good year for hardware

 

Growing less skeptical of OUYA's potential. I'm considering porting a mobile game for the console's launch -- going to check out the Unity plugin soon.

 

I have a question, does the controller have a acceleration and gyro?

 

No, it does not.

 

Hey everyone,

I have a small question: how many draw calls and tris is Ouya actually able to handle?

 

Well... it depends on many factors.. but you may want to read this article for a bit more info on the performance of the Tegra 3
http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/transformer-prime-tf201-tablet-review,3175-3.html

 

Cool, thanks for the link

 

This was just for the TF Prime, wasn't it? It'll remain to be seen how this all levels out with the overclocked-by-default Ouya.

 

I feel like the OUYA will be successful, but at the same time I don't think it will be.

One of the reasons I feel like it'll fail is because I feel like only "fan boys" (not sure what word to use) are only going to purchase the console.

As much as we hate the 12 year old's and things like that, they are a large part of console owners, and for the most part I doubt their going to want to leave their Call of Duty or Halo to come play some games on an OUYA.

I'm not sure how to put it, but hopefully you guys can understand what I'm saying