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Why I think games development is the new economy!

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Arowx, Feb 27, 2016.

  1. Fuzzy

    Fuzzy

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  2. Arowx

    Arowx

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    What could be interesting in robotics is the potential of swarm robots, robots that can work together to a greater outcome like a swarm of ants/termites or bees building a nest/mound or hive.

    The best animation showing the amazing potential of swarm robotics is the Big Hero 6 Movie, it also has a great inflatable medical robot.



    As people have already been saying humanoid robotics is limiting the robot's potential. Swarms could get around this as they could be tailored to their task e.g. Brick Laying

    Or even be designed to be flexible enough to join and configure to physically adapt to their job as in the Big Hero 6 micro bots.
     
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  3. tedthebug

    tedthebug

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    From another documentary I saw, Commander Data wasn't considered sentient 'til Captain Pickard stood up for him. We are safe for a few more centuries.
     
  4. Arowx

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    It's early days but people are working with swarm based robots...





    But things are progressing...



    Big Hero 6 is a brilliant view into what might be possible.
     
  5. Arowx

    Arowx

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    Or these guys.



    Maybe robotics could be more fun than game development?!
     
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  6. zombiegorilla

    zombiegorilla

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    It's.... Slower. ;). We do a lot of it around the office. It's fun, but takes a lot of time for very small results. (Compared to games anyway). And 'refactoring' hardware is its own special hell.
     
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  7. Tomnnn

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    I hear that a lot. I never see the reasoning in it beyond some assumption that people are all evil and if the circumstances arose that you could get by without others then you'd kill everyone except yourself because... well, a reason is never given. How about this then... If that were true and common knowledge then why don't the 80% just rise up now and purge the 20%? It would only benefit the 80% to remove those who contribute nothing but greed to their world and plan currently to kill them in the inevitable future :p

    As the theory stands now, it benefits the 80% immensely to purge the 20% since the premise of the argument identifies the 80% as the current population needed to produce what they already have. They can exist without the 20% and the 20% plans to eradicate them, why not act? There's too much you'd expect to see but don't if it were the case.

    But what do I know, I'm indispensable to all sides whether it's a conspiracy or not. #ProgrammerPriveledge
     
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  8. Kiwasi

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    Until we automate the task of creating software. Compilers are getting pretty smart. Eventually that will eliminate the need for people like you. Think that through next time you here someone releasing a new feature. Each new feature is one step closer to the end of programmers.
     
  9. Tomnnn

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    I think I won't be afraid until we have a series of machines that can...

    -identify a problem
    -build hardware to solve that problem
    -write the assembly for the machine to perform its basic function
    -generate and document an api that is hyper optimized for the hardware's function(s)
    -install the hardware where needed
    -do all of the above autonomously

    At that point I would consider myself less valuable :p
     
  10. theANMATOR2b

    theANMATOR2b

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    And without programmers - hyper optimizations needed to run uncompressed artist developed content at 30-60 fps will never be an automated process.
    Art Wranglers.
     
  11. Ryiah

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    Honestly I won't be worried until the robot starts asking me to go fetch it a beer from the fridge. :p
     
  12. Tomnnn

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    Maybe the machine will have an embedded human brain to handle art decisions.
     
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  13. Arowx

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    Is there anything in the above that entails new scientific discoveries or research?

    Do you use software to design, develop and test before building any of the hardware/software?

    How much of the build and write steps involve pre-made components/modules and how much bespoke custom made hardware e.g. machine tooled/3d printed/fabricated custom silicon?
     
  14. Tomnnn

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    @Arowx I guess just better versions of existing technologies. There should be armies of little spider drones that are coordinated by a hive mind that can identify where a problem is, work together to 3D print hardware, code in assembly for the machine to perform its function and generate an api for other machines to interact with it - depending on what it is.

    So for example, cameras pick up an area that could really use a traffic light. Then a signal is broadcasted and soon a wave of little spider drones come by and 3D weave-print and program a fully functional traffic light in that location and then generate the api for the machine network to control the lights manually to aid emergency vehicles getting around.
     
  15. Arowx

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    Could you answer the three simple questions please?

    It would allow the community to better understand your job and how far away from automation it is, it would also allow you to think about how many years before aspects of your job are automated so you can save up to by your own job replacement robot and retire on triple pay (assuming you work an 8 hr day and a robot/automated system can work 24/7)?
     
  16. Tomnnn

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    Much more advanced ai, drones that can weave structures into existence with internal 3d printers, most of what I mentioned actually is either new or a far away version of existing tech.

    The spider drones? The desired functionality will be created in assembly by the hive mind & burned in by the drones as the circuit boards are 3d-print-woven into existence. No testing since they will do it perfectly the first time. All needed additional functionality will be there in some form, like an interpreter for future instructions to be accessed by the api (in the example, manual control of the lights in a newly made traffic light)

    The software : no clue, I just posted what I thought the final evolution of this tech could be. Little 3d printer drones that can get the assembly instructions from a hive mind (skynet, woo!) and burn those right into the hardware.

    The hardware : 100% custom since it will be 3d printed by the drones. No idea what that entails, but again it's where I think that tech needs to be to make humans obsolete. Totally obsolete, anyway. A lower tech version of this idea could be to have an automated warehouse build this stuff and then have drones deliver & install it. The 3d printed idea just feels more advanced :D

    My job replaced by automation, hmm... well if customers know what they want an can assemble it from modules, even the robots that don't yet exist are obsolete :p
     
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  17. Arowx

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    Thank you.

    Maybe Tomnn does have a point the crazier and more artistic and dream/creative based your job is the less likely robots are to take over your role.

    But you do tend to need a job that people are willing to pay you for what you do or what you produce. At least until technology advances enough for you to get that retirement robot.
     
  18. Arowx

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    What about the scary future where robots only get about 50% of the jobs market but then enable the remaining employed to work long past retirement age with robotic exoskeletons, automated medical robotics and VR controlled robots.

    The last employed people who are trapped in employment are denied retirement via robot but instead are kept alive with medical robotics and get to work until they die!

    Could you imagine being trapped in a job with the retirement age being moved further and further away as medical robotics and VR enabled robotic and automated system allow people to work into their geriatric years or as long as their brain holds together.

    It is a big concern as a lot of western nations have had a decline in birth rate and countries are pushing back the retirement age to compensate. Japan is working on medical robotics and exoskeletons and the Japanese have the most centennials on the planet.

    80 years from now will you be working on Unity 45.3.4 in VR while your aging body is kept alive via medical robotics...
     
  19. Tomnnn

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    Automation for physical labor is a no brainer. You save time, money and in cases like construction, you save lives! Both the lives of the people who may get hurt building the structure and also the people who will live in the structure. Since robots aren't greedy, they'd probably build buildings to code perfectly every time.

    Automation for programming already exists. Drag and drop visual programming is the best form of that since it requires human input to describe the problem that needs solving. That can be improved, but the only way to remove a programmer would be to have a machine that could identify problems and solve them with code - and solve all of the problems that arise from the design proposed by the human designer :p

    I dislike charging for stuff like this. I'd love a society where everything is free since the robots make it. But with programming I consume no resources beyond electricity to produce software. It just feels wrong to charge for that.

    I discussed that with an admin in another thread. Unity is the ideal environment for this since you can write code, compile the assemblies and then load the new content into your game while it's still running!
     
  20. zombiegorilla

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    This scenario will never come to pass, as the math just doesn't work out. Besides that , practically speaking, robots are never going to be a effective (or cost practical) drop in replacement for humans by task. Folks often have a very limited view of the future and future of tech. Much like 70's pop sci-fi, many folks see things as exactly the same as today, but with more gears an flashing lights. (like requiring 3 robots to fly a spaceship). Most jobs won't really be replaced by robots. Rather, tech, will negate the need for the job in the first place. Grocery chains didn't replace checkers with robots checkers, the tech fundamentally changed the process. That is the typical result. Many grunt tasks done by humans are done they way are because the tech didn't exist to do it better, not because it it was the best way to do it.
     
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  21. Kiwasi

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    This is an important point. Automating a job does not normally mean building a robot to do it the same way a human would. Automating the horse did not mean building a device that could convert grass into power that moved a four legged contraption. It involved burning kerosene inside a piston connected to a shaft that drove the wheels.

    The robot pilot is a good example. Building a humanoid robotic pilot that can push the pedals and pull the joystick is inefficient and error prone. Controling the craft directly through software is more efficient.

    Then there is the sewing machine. A human sews by passing a single needle with a single thread back and forth through the work. A sewing machine uses a needle that stays on one side of the work, and two threads.

    So when considering how your job could be automated, don't consider "how could a robot do the same tasks I do". Instead think about "how could the big picture job I am doing be accomplished". For programmers that means the automated system might not need to worry about mundane human things like building maintainable code of documented API.
     
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  22. Arowx

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    What about football could robot footballers take over from human ones, never, 30, 20, 10 yrs?



    Robotcup the aim is to:

     
  23. Ryiah

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    IBM's Deep Blue won against chess player Garry Kasparov. Yet you don't see chess players replaced by robots.

    They're not making those as replacements though. They exist largely to improve and eventually showcase the technology.
     
  24. Frpmta

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    That's what they want you to believe.
     
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  25. Tomnnn

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    Assembly spaghetti code! I wonder if they'd even try to write programs to solve a problem. They could just generate a new assembly program to handle the problem each day in case some variables change.
     
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  26. zombiegorilla

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    Indeed. Everyone knows it takes 3 robots to fly a ship...
    three.png
     
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  27. Arowx

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    Good point the shuttle had 5 flight computers.

    And if you take a modern attack helicopter/fighter/bomber or tank then a 2-4 person crew is common.

    Mind you a modern UAV has a ground crew of 1 and the military are looking at using a group of UAV's alongside conventional fighters, with the fighter pilot or co-pilot co-ordinating the action of the UAV's.

    But as per previous comments without needing to accommodate people unmanned drones and automated system can be designed for specific tasks.
     
  28. Arowx

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    Here is a great article on automation http://www.mckinsey.com/business-fu...hts/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-automation

    In summary:
    45% of work could be automated with current technology
    13% can be automated with good natural language systems (SIRI/Watson).
    20% of a CEO's job could be automated.

    People skills are possibly the hardest to automate but are only used about 4% of the time.

    Great News For:
    Game developer's as people will have more time to play games.
    Slackers as they can automate their jobs and still get paid, just tell your boss it's international bring your robot to work day.

    So the Economic Quandary: Automate and make things cheaper and maximise profit, putting people out of work so less money in the economy to buy things. Or automate but keep minimal human intervention e.g. pilot (above quote) just in case and to keep the economy running.

    PS: Should we be targeting our games at pilots, as they have a lot of free time, or are most of the game developers pilots?
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2016
  29. Arowx

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    OK So the old economy is going to change but we have a new economy the VR economy is just beginning.

    Nice Introduction to the potential impacts of the VR economy on Wired: http://www.wired.com/insights/2014/10/virtual-reality-economy/

    In a Nutshell:
    The dot com boom, the internet took off and it has changed the world digitising media and impacting whole sectors of the economy e.g. Blockbusters / Netflix. Kodak / Instagram. Diaries / Facebook.

    In effect anything audio/visual and text based has been moved or dragged into the digital age.

    But we are removed from it viewing and interacting with the digital world via flat screen, keyboards and 2D mice or touch screens.

    Then along comes VR, this opens up the potential for more things to be digitised and experienced than ever before. Best seat in the house at a concert or football match. Test drive or own a VR Ferrari and be able to drive it around your town or Monaco.

    In effect there is going to be a big rush to digitise everything in the world, and set up VR cameras and drones so people can go on holiday or tour from home or hospital bed.

    So we end up with virtual worlds, some based on reality, some fantasy.

    And these worlds can have virtual economies that can make real money, we have already seen MMO game worlds where players can rank up and sell their loot/characters goods for real money.

    We have eSports where gifted players or teams can win big prizes and some even become professional players.

    My thinking is that a VR metaverse economy is not limited to the number of Ferrari's that have and can be made or the number of people who can afford them, it is almost limitless (it will require energy, bandwidth and computing power).

    So on one hand we have the finite global economy and classic economics based on growth but limited to a single planet and on the other the VR metaverse economy.

    Yes the VR economy like the digital economy will change the real world economy. Some of those changes will be for the better some for the worse but it could herald the economists dream of an economy that can grow and grow and grow. As it is not as constrained to finite resources.
     
  30. Ryiah

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    What percentage of your threads could be replaced by a bot that scans news articles? :D
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2016
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  31. Arowx

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    Definity with Google Search and Watson, you could looks at current articles/trends and relate them to ongoing changes that will impact game developers in the future.

    The question is do I or those other authors/bloggers add enough creative thinking to the mix to stay ahead of the robotic revolution. Or do we need to start working part time in a VR Ferrari showroom.
     
  32. mathiasj

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    But why would the device used to display the virtual world (either VR glasses or a standard computer screen) matter at all for the virtual economy as you describe it? And why do you think once VR devices become popular, suddenly there will be a VR currency or anything alike? Of course, there will be several apps and games which might have their own currency but I don't see at all how VR will then create an economy that is not there yet?
     
  33. AcidArrow

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    Personally I hope humanity will grow out of silly sports like American Football before replacing athletes with robots is viable.
     
  34. Arowx

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    You need the horse before you can have the cart or the technology platform before you can have the media/experience, the printed word made novels and books possible, the video tape/recorder/player allowed home movies and video rental.

    VR digitised worlds and items the foundation for any economy need a working VR platform. In a way games are this but VR technology opens up the 3D technology to a much wider audience and presents it to them directly as a sense of presence of being in a virtual world.

    Economies form wherever there are services and items and people consuming/wanting/needing them, current MMO's and much simpler games have economies built in and even black markets where people trade virtual items for real money.

    I would be very surprised if VR worlds do not have economy's either built in and official or emergent and black or gray from their usage.

    Why not the internet is quite new and it has opened the way for new economic systems e.g. Paypal and Bitcoin as well as a lot of F2P games have currencies built in. What will be interesting is if we get VR banks and virtual economies that start to outshine real world economies.
     
  35. Ryiah

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    People are overweight as it is. We don't need to encourage it further by eliminating sports. :p
     
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