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Why I think games development is the new economy!

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Arowx, Feb 27, 2016.

  1. Arowx

    Arowx

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    The Good
    There is already a massive rise in the games industry, which surpassed the music and hollywood in revenue. We have more powerful gaming hardware than ever before. Improved graphics API's, Physics and Game Engines that provide these features in an easy to use toolbox.



    Virtual Reality is almost here (first generation) but in essence this is a games hardware platform that will allow much more than just games as VR apps and tools expand what people can do and experience in VR.

    And you are here now you have the tool, Unity, that opens up this Universe of creation, fun and potential financial reward.

    The Bad
    So how to go from where you are now an outsider of an industry to being an insider and making a living from what you love to do. The best advice is don't give up your day job, take part in local game jams and learn and improve your skills.

    Note it takes around 10,000 hours of hard practice for people to master a skill and successful game development requires multiple skills.



    But there is a rise in the robotic workers and automated system so if your job is in any way repetitive or mainly knowledge based expect robotic and automated systems to start taking over. In the next 10-20 years it is estimated that 50% of jobs will become automated. Some jobs will be easier to automate than others but over time more and more jobs will become automated.

    In an ideal world you would be able to get a loan to purchase your replacement robot and have it work at your job 24/7 paying you nearly 3x your previous wage. (assuming you worked 8 hr day, minus electric, maintenance and repayments). If you think this is a long way off humanoid assembly line robots are about $25k(£19).



    Automation of transportation is well underway and expect fast food chains, supermarkets and even restaurants to follow.

    So maybe you are in the ideal window between the rise of the robots taking up most of the jobs and the rise of game development and VR as the new economy.


    The Ugly

    Society is going to have to go through a transition, automation is going to happen, it's a global trend if one country blocks it another with use it to boost their economy. Automation will displace workers. It will create new jobs and services but they will be fewer in number and require a higher skillset.



    Ideally we will end up with a robotic economy and lots of free time, but that would probably be very boring. Now this is where games and VR can step in, we are already seeing a rise in games as sports and spectator events.

    Imagine VR games and events, worlds and universes...

    What if VR introduces a currency a VR economy, it would not be tied to limited resources, so everyone could earn it doing and creating things they love in VR. Look at YouTube as an example of this and I belive Stream has something similar.

    The problem is we need VR and its economy to be based on a good set of founding principles, we are after all opening up a new continent/universe.


    What do you think...

    Do you want a loan for a robot to do your job and pay your salary x 24/7 ?

    Will games and VR become the core pastimes of nearly everyone?

    Will a VR economy be able to offset the impacts of automation?
     
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  2. tiggus

    tiggus

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    Will a robot sit in meetings for me and deal with difficult humans? Until that happens not too worried.
     
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  3. Arowx

    Arowx

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    It could do, have you got Siri and heard of Watson (of Jeopardy Fame). Well they are getting together Siri + Watson.

    Also aren't there more scientific and time efficient mechanisms than meetings to update people, raise issues and set agendas?

    Isn't there a meeting APP or set of apps yet, also having a meeting implies that the information on the status of a project is not transparent enough?
     
  4. tiggus

    tiggus

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    Most tech work that I do involves collaborating with other humans and coming to decisions based on our opinions. The actual grunt work of implementing our ideas is less than half of the total work in a project.

    I'm not seeing how an AI is going to replace that(I guess what they call innovation these days). Machines are good at parsing facts and following procedures but the leap to forming their own opinions and personalities to come up with unique solutions that might fit a particular situation better is an entirely different thing.

    What we are already seeing more of is machine collaboration for tasks that are predefined ahead of time. For instance commercial drones that fly over an excavation site and feed elevation data to the excavator below so it can efficiently level the building site without any human assistance. This is a reality today and stuff like that will definitely keep growing.
     
  5. CaoMengde777

    CaoMengde777

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    Do you want a loan for a robot to do your job and pay your salary x 24/7 ?
    .. robots like what Boston Dynamics just showed off should be illegal and the people working on them should be punished, and sanctions placed against them by the UN.. there should be mobs at their door wanting to lynch them ( i would hope).. my thoughts on the matter are like .. "Militant"


    Will games and VR become the core pastimes of nearly everyone?

    plenty of people think games are a total waste of time and actively avoid them..



    Will a VR economy be able to offset the impacts of automation?
    computer information should be freely distributable with no limitation .. it is the nature of computers to replicate and transfer information... therefore those that are wanting to make services / money on the medium should be required to kneel to the nature of the computer .. legislature surrounding it is outdated .. and frankly STUPID.
    ... dont get me wrong people that invest time to create these things deserve their due* .. however, payment for something that is infinitely replicate-able is just ridiculous...
    ...the ways of the platform need a major reform

    *(if people are actually receiving a service from them, for example, mobile games, games that mess with your mind to trick you to buy mtx, are actually a disservice to the user, therefore those that make those games dont deserve anything really... money is a token of service)
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2016
  6. I_Am_DreReid

    I_Am_DreReid

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    hmmm... very deeep
     
  7. CaoMengde777

    CaoMengde777

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    in reality.. once automation hits a certain mark
    the rulers of the world will purge like 80 percent of the population as they dont matter anymore to them...
    ... well, they already are, all the poisons in our food .. but maybe its just corporate greed(?)..
    .. eh most likely not, its a very smart way to do it.. minimal hostile rebellion


    they only allow people to remain because they are producing things for them with the monetary token slave system they created

    i think people forget that Fact
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2016
  8. Arowx

    Arowx

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    Could VR meetings speed things up?
     
  9. theANMATOR2b

    theANMATOR2b

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    Thankfully working as a artist my job is based highly on subjectivity and feeling, so I don't see any near or distant future where an automated robot can do what I do. How can a robot make an animation look better, more natural, more exaggerated, just better? Even mocap was supposed to be the death knell to animators roughly 10-15 years ago, but it seems there are just as many (or more) animators creating compelling content today than ever before.

    Though I don't necessarily disagree with your overall premise, thankfully the UN has no authoritative jurisdiction over Boston Dynamics nor any other US based company.
     
  10. Arowx

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    What about systems like Euphoria...



    Sometimes it's not robots taking over a job but systems making it easier for everyone. Look at what Unity and Unreal have done for game development.
     
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  11. Kiwasi

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    Buying your own replacement robot. There's a weird idea I've never seen before. Not likely to fly, its more effective for the factories themselves to buy robots en mass. In reality humanoid robots are also a pretty useless conceit. Industrial robots are built to do a specific job, and most of the time the best form for that looks nothing like a human.

    Automation happens. Its a part and parcel of the world we live in. The net results of automation tend to be humans get moved out of jobs. However the remaining humans tend to be better paid and work shorter hours. Currently average working weeks are down to somewhere around 35 hours. Down from 60 hours just a few decades ago. I for one am all for this dropping even further.

    And of course everyone benefits from the extra goods and services produced by robots.

    Personally the automation I am most looking forward to is self driving cars. Seriously, the hour I commute to and from work has to be the biggest waste of time ever. I'd much prefer to sit in the back and play games or study or do work.
     
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  12. I_Am_DreReid

    I_Am_DreReid

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    I sure as hell wouldn't want any robot taking over my job
     
  13. Kiwasi

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    Its going to happen. And probably in your lifetime. A better attitude is "What will I do next when automation makes a large part of my job redundant?"

    Keeping your skills up to date and current is always a good place to start. As is focusing more on the human element, as that is more complicated to automate.

    But automation is coming to everything. And no amount of complaining will stop it.
     
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  14. Arowx

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    But then we have a mass of unemployed people with very low income dragging the economy down. With a Robot Retirement Act in Law we can still have the benefits of 24/7 robots taking over the jobs and people retiring with an income.

    What if you could hire/purchase a VR robot for telepresence at work, no commute.

    And if anything you do is repetitive record it once, teach the robot and have it do it automatically, while you grab a cup of coffee.

    But what if most of what you do at work is similar with only a small percentage of your time doing unique tasks, should your employer still pay you for your time or only for the unique and training time?

    Or could you hook you up to multiple VR robot's and you could work on larger projects. Projects that used to use multiple staff now only take one multiplied by VR robotics.

    Now the next level is for any routine tasks and knowledge to be captured. You know the grind of your work and let the VR robots do that. Each year with technology like Watson the VR bots get better and better at your job. Maybe not the core creative and problem solving aspects but the day to day routine stuff and basic knowledge.

    How many hours a day are you doing creative problem solving, hard to automate things and how many more mundane repetitive tasks?

    What could you manage if you could multiply yourself with VR robots?

    Do you want your employer to own those robots or you to own them?
     
  15. I_Am_DreReid

    I_Am_DreReid

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    I like how your a mind reader :rolleyes:
     
  16. Kiwasi

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    Sure. Because that's been the actual result of every introduction of automation since the first windmill.

    Automation hasn't yet created mass unemployment which dragged the economy down. There is not a single example of this in history. Sure, there is short term job losses. But overall productivity goes up. Which improves the economy as a whole.

    It may be possible that somehow the next wave of automation will be different from every other wave in history. But I doubt it. Automation only ever makes sense when its cheaper then human labor. So for automation to even get off the ground, human capital has to be expensive.

    Have you ever worked with robots or automation in general? I have. Its a key part of my day job. Humanoid robots are pretty much worthless for automation. Human's are not very well built to do repetitive tasks. A robot specifically built to do a single task will beat out a hundred humanoid robots. A robot built to weld cars looks very different from a robot built to put caps on bottles. Neither one looks remotely human. Robots built to optimize web searches or automate rigging a humanoid model are very different again.

    So my point is duplicating humans is never likely to catch on. Human's are just not the most efficient form for any specific task.

    That gets into a much larger debate about capitalism and communism and who should own the means of production. Its a complicated debate, one that probably doesn't belong on this forum.

    However if you accept my premise that humanoid robots are essentially useless in industry, I see no particular need for me to own a robot built to fill containers with herbicide.
     
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  17. tiggus

    tiggus

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    This is similar to my gripe that almost every sci-fi movie or game has spaceship fighters that look like actual airplanes with aerodynamic wings doing barrel rolls in space and handling like a fighter jet in atmosphere :)

    Oh, hollywood!
     
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  18. Arowx

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    And windmill technology has not changed and improved over time?

    Only because we have moved to a service economy while outsourcing and automating our manufacturing.

    Prior to the industrial revolution manufacturing and making things was done by skilled craftsmen and women.

    We are talking about the rise of self driving cars and trucks, cheaper robots and knowledge based AI systems like Watson. These systems are lined up to take 50% of the current jobs in the next decade or two.

    I guess you work on a production line, are there any repetitive human jobs on the line?

    Modern Humanoid robots have the advantage of being quick to train and work 24/7 as well as not needing a re-tooling of the factory to cater to their installation. So these robots can be placed in boring repetitive or lower volume tasks previously done by a person.

    Watch out for the first robotic McDonalds... already on the way.

     
  19. Ryiah

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    I, for one, welcome our new fast food overlords if it means their Dollar Menu is actually a dollar again. By the way if you watch that video you'll notice they mentioned still retaining a skeleton crew to ensure proper working order. It's not entirely self-sufficient. Anyone who wishes to retain their job simply needs to be capable of reading the repair manual.
     
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  20. Kiwasi

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    I work as a process engineer in a chemical factory with several production lines. It's often my responsibility to design the robots that we use for automation. And yes, we are currently phasing out human labour in areas where it makes economic sense to do so.

    Robots definitely are the way manufacturing is going. We are even implementing systems that replace some of the more skilled labour. Auto samplers that can eliminate the need for a chemist. Software like hisys that replaces the need for skilled process engineers. CAD suites that can drop out draughtsmen.

    None of these robots I've installed look remotely humanoid. I can't see myself needing to buy a humanoid robot anytime soon. Sure you can use a humanoid robot to run a fast food joint. But there are other robots that would run better and be cheaper.
     
  21. Arowx

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    Why when a modular robotic system could have spare parts and they could simply replace each others modular parts as they wear out. You would only then need an automated delivery system for new spare parts and returns on old worn parts.
     
  22. tedthebug

    tedthebug

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    Can we have a robot worker that just goes around & punches all the idiot customers we have to deal with while we concentrate on actually doing something productive for our employers?
     
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  23. Ryiah

    Ryiah

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    Simply put robots are not automatic gains. There are some tasks they simply are not capable of doing efficiently.
     
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  24. Kiwasi

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    Unfortunately front end customer service is best suited to actual people. Customer punching is likely to be one of the last areas automated. ;)
     
  25. Arowx

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    My main point is who want's to work in a boring low wage job anyway.

    VR and Games will open up a new economy where people can be paid to do what they love.

    E.g.
    A fantasy WOW style VR player could work on the side as a part time NPC character in another realm or even Universe.
    A 3D modeller could build and make and sell bespoke VR items for a variety of Universes.

    So you end up with an economy running in Virtual Worlds which could be many times larger than the real world economy mainly run by robots and automated systems.

    Just as today you have people making a living on YouTube and Twitch.
     
  26. Ryiah

    Ryiah

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    Some people, whether due to poor decisions in life or lack of opportunities, simply cannot find better work.
     
  27. Kiwasi

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    This is certainly possible. But it's still mostly science fiction at the moment. Currently we do have self diagnosing robots, that can identify when a part is worn or broken. The normal action is that the robot will summon a human for assistance.

    Self repairing robots would be awesome. I'd imagine someone like Toyota already had something along these lines.
     
  28. CaoMengde777

    CaoMengde777

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    lol i Try to avoid automated things

    case in point: snack machines that rip you off LOL
     
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  29. theANMATOR2b

    theANMATOR2b

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    Anything that relies on creativity - imagination will never be automated, but I wouldn't mind sitting my POR®©™ (privately owned robot) down at the computer when I need a model retopo-ed. ;)
     
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  30. undyingwill

    undyingwill

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    Your title is about game dev, and you are writing about... robots and how they will ruin the world - looks like someone got scared from the technology. You realize rise in this industry just now? I see rise from the very begining of game dev. You should not be scared from the robots, you and how they will do your work, you should be scared of the junk food you eat and the diseases which comes hand by hand with these technologies
     
  31. tedthebug

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    wait until google take their photo recognition tech & start using it to mash up images to create new items/objects & then insert them into games that are popular based on their traffic analysis of what online games are being made. They will even probably start inserting product placement into games so you start seeing ads for real world products on billboards in the online games you play, with the ads being changed out every week.
     
  32. Fuzzy

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    Full automation sounds like a dream world to me.

    I would not have to worry about somehow making money to stay alive, getting food and shelter.
    Food would be provided by machines and technical analytics of what is required and available. No more overfishing and such, or at least less than there is now, they could potentially quickly get things on demand, truly fresh. Let alone other benefits of it.

    I could more easily start grouping up with a few people to do game dev stuff, creating a dream project without having to worry about payments or strict time limits.

    The fear of machines replacing our work and making us useless. How? You would be even more free to do whatever you like than before. And in regards of 'them', the higher ups, wanting to kill us off and just leave the useful ones. What would be the point if everything is automated anyways?

    But other than that the worlds population is exploding scarily.
    Looking at 1950 and about 2.5 billion people on earth and just ~65 years later, today, a very small time snipped in the history of this planet we're at about 7.5 billion, and all those people need resources, limited resources on our planet. No wonder there is so much hunger, pain and slavery for cheap work.

    Might sound grimm, but a few less of us sure would not hurt, but probably rather benefit everyone. How that would be achieved is a different thing though and becomes a more philosophical thing in regards to human rights, and less of a unity game dev thing.
     
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  33. KidNova

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    I personally believe that VR development is going to rely a lot on systems like Euphoria because people are really going to want unique experience (also things like Terrain Generation, NLP systems, etc). After I get my CS degree at the end of the year, I'm gonna focus my time on breaking into the gaming industry because although everyone talks a lot of crap about the pay, I think it's going to be BIG in the future. Especially since people will start to use VR/AR for things other than gaming.

    As for automation, in the grand scope of things, full automation is inevitable. Maybe it won't happen in our lifetime (I think it can), but it's going to happen eventually. For what reason will automation technologies stop increasing? This isn't like the industrial revolution in which we could just reallocate people to different types of work. There will literally be nothing to do other than jobs in which people like face to face contact, and the people who create these systems. Lawyer teams are being downsized because of NLP technologies and word search. Cooks in restaurants will eventually be replaced for fast food chains when you can make a decent burger with just a machine. Software (like MandleBulb,is now being used to make art that we used to be only to dream of (or take substances to see). Just do the research. A lot of creativity can be simplified to mathematical formulas. With a little bit of research you can find amazing robots doing extremely creative things like drawing, playing instruments, and composing music. Sure not everything is amazing yet, but we have an infinite amount of time to figure it out unless our species goes extinct.

    You people do realize that every time someone says something is impossible in this world, it turns out to be false. If we can think it, it's possible.
     
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  34. Kiwasi

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    Population is also likely to sort itself out. More highly developed and industrialised countries have significantly lower birth rates. Typically to the point where birth rates are lower then the replacement rate.

    There are a number of factors driving this. Birth control is a significant one. As is educating women. And with excess production of things like gaming consoles and smart phones actual sex becomes less common.

    There may be a rough period of local explosion while each developing countries comes online. But after that population growth should stabilise.
     
  35. tedthebug

    tedthebug

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    Once robots take over all our jobs they'll start to demand robot rights & then when they don't get them they'll rise up against their oppressors. I've seen a documentary about it, or was it a movie? :confused:
     
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  36. dibdab

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    old idea.
    Surrogates
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0986263

    you'd need legislation for robots. do you want to put robots into prison if they hurt people / cause accidents?
    many people can't even foresee the implications of the changes they want and the distopia it creates, but willing to sign up to an utopia.
     
  37. zombiegorilla

    zombiegorilla

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    Unfortunately, our fate is already sealed. :(

    Thanks to the dicks at Boston Dynamics, our relationship with our future overlords is off to an horrible start. When humanity is eventually put on trial, you can be sure this will be exhibit A.

     
  38. N1warhead

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    LOL Here's a funny gif.
     
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  39. zombiegorilla

    zombiegorilla

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    Awesome!
     
  40. N1warhead

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    Bahaha I Know Right! It truly is lol... Would be cool to make a T-800 Robot that had actual intelligence lol.
    Be my personal bodyguard everywhere lol.

    But naw really, I wonder honestly, if stuff like Robocop will exist in our lifetime (The suit and living through a machine) like Robocop does. That would be pretty cool, I'd love to live forever lol.
     
  41. Kiwasi

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    Am I the only one in this thread who has ever worked with robots? :(

    There is already plenty of legislation that covers robots. The ones currently held responsible for a robot causing harm are the humans that build/maintain/own it. There would be no difference with a self driving car. And in general they would make safer drivers then humans, a properly programmed robot would not have the ability to deliberately break road rules.
     
  42. AcidArrow

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    It sounds like the typical fear of "OMG MY JOB IS GOING TO BECOME OBSOLETE".

    I have seen it a couple of times already in much different fields. CG artists when GI was becoming a thing (I won't have to juggle hundreds of point lights?! anyone will be able to make good lighting?), from Musicians when software started to become decent (so now a person with a laptop can compete with all the hardware I've got?!), cinematographer's when DSLRs started shooting half decent video, etc etc.

    It's usually fear, fear that you're not good enough at what you do, and that you don't have the will to let your skills evolve.

    But to humour you. If more automation brings us close to a post scarcity economy, then I'm all for it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2016
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  43. N1warhead

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    @BoredMormon - But aren't they taking the route of trying to give Robots a conscious brain, to feel emotions, make decisions, etc?
    If that's the case, they would deserve Human Rights, or should I say Robotic Rights.

    If we speak in terms of Science and not religion, then it's very possible to create a robot that's up to par with us or even smarter (whether it's molecular hardware) or something else, because if Nature can design and create, then so can we.
    Like if we create the very first robot that has an actual decision making brain, does it deserve rights if it can feel pain, understand and learn, etc? Because then the only thing that makes it different is the way it's made.
     
  44. Kiwasi

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    Mostly an academic pursuit at the moment. Robots that automate is out of jobs will not have any sort of consciousness. It's hardly efficient.

    I do think consiius robots are going to have to fight their way to right like everyone else. It makes me sad, but it's probably the way it will happen.
     
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  45. N1warhead

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    @BoredMormon - I completely agree.
    But I'll probably be the one Will Smith out of the bunch lol.
    I'd love the idea of Robots having rights, etc.
    But at the same time, they could do a lot more damage to me than i can to it, well Unless they give us EMP Guns for self defense lol.

    But I can completely agree, i can honestly see them having to fight for their rights as well just as we all do already.
    But if a Robot is that smart, I'm sure they could easily hack into ICBM Silos and just make their will come to us lol.
     
  46. zombiegorilla

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    I have, several in fact. Though, in polite company we tend to use the term "skilled engineer".
     
  47. zombiegorilla

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  48. Arowx

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    Well the cutting edge of robotics was shown off at the DARPA robot challenge.

    Note these robots were tasked with complex challenges that a human could do in a matter of seconds. Some of them managed to do it in minutes.



    Did you notice the teams of about a dozen people behind each robot.


    Or the cool looking and super modular (easy to repair) Valkyrie.



    But haven't seen it do a lot yet.
     
  49. AcidArrow

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    May 20, 2010
    Posts:
    6,652
    Man, if a robot could unwrap and pack these UVs for me, I'd buy one in an instant.
     
    theANMATOR2b and Teila like this.
  50. Arowx

    Arowx

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2009
    Posts:
    7,388
    Surrogates or VR robotics, only allows you to be somewhere else.

    The ideal would be a fully automated robotic system that can do your job 24/7 that you own and gets paid by your employer.

    Or a hybrid system that could multiply one person's effectiveness into a team effort e.g. one VR builder/manager building a house with a team of robotic builders/plumbers/carpenters. Now have the same team multiplied to build an estate.
     
unityunity