The fall of MMORPGs

So I've been searching around I discovered a number of articles off Google of coarse with a lot of people talking about how MMORPGs are possibly dying. Mostly because no one can really compete with MMORPGs like World of Warcraft or Guild Wars 2.

While we may still see plenty of MMORPGs out there, and maybe more in development... that doesn't mean they will all be as successful as WoW or Guild Wars 2. With that... many Developers who invested in MMORPGs end up closing down their studios, become acquired by larger studios, or other stuff that indicates that MMORPGs just aren't profitable games to make anymore... way to expensive, and very hard to monetize...

All the while First Person Shooters, MOBA's and competitive games remain stable and on the rise.

I found this interesting... and I personally think this may be due to a growing fast paced society, speed of ever-changing new technology, social media, bla bla... gamers just want to jump into action faster, have instant engagement, and not waste their time grinding to enjoy a game which is mostly what all MMORPGs have players doing for the most part before they can progress to the next experience in the game.

I've always enjoyed the idea of Open World Gameplay which MMORPGs offer which I think is probably one of the most appealing aspects of an MMORPG... but even though players can explore the world as you please doesn't mean you can actually enjoy everything based on what Level your Character is on and if you Venture too Far off you'll be too low Level to Engage any Enemies, Quests, or PvP Until you Reach much Higher Levels.

Anyway... I think it's interesting that MMORPGs are on supposedly on the decline according to my Googling lol! What are you thoughts? Is it True? is there any developer out there that is in fact re-defining MMORPGs in the near future, and making something that will surpass a game like World of Warcraft? Curious to know what the future holds for MMORPG Gaming.

 

I think that the main problem (and part of the huge dev cost) of these MMOs is that they try to cater for all play styles in a single container. That's a big issue and why a lot of people say that you can't make an MMO with a small team (or single person). I believe that the same issue is the cause of the majority of these huge and beautiful games becoming free-to-play very quickly.

I'm taking a different route, designing for a niche market; which I hope will allow me to create mechanics that only suit people within that niche. In this way, I can do unusual things and push boundaries that the big companies can't.

My motto: One size does not fit all.

 

I think the main problem is the fact that MMO's (with the exception of WoW, and I guess maybe GW2?) are not really exciting for viewers to watch on a Twitch stream/video.

Like you've said, everyone is more into "Fast-paced" action, but if the game has great balance, customization, fast-paced action and depth, then it makes things even more entertaining. Not only that, but graphics and representation of what's happening on the scene has to be immediately intuitive for people to follow along and understand as both viewers and players (who wants to watch or play something with a bunch of hardly-recognizable units and/or UI elements?)

FFXIV may have been exciting to watch, had it not flopped the first time around and had 2.5 second base Global Cooldowns for skills. It also doesn't help that their Open Beta was only 1 week long, as if they were more intent on syphoning money from the pockets of players as quickly as possible as opposed to getting solid OB testing from players. FFXI is outdated and its gameplay just seems slow in comparison to WoW and even RIFT (even though I do admit playing a BLU is fun as hell).

WoW had a lot of depth. I'm not sure if that's the case anymore or not, but because Blizzard's user base is so big (due to games like Hearthstone, SC/SC2, Diablo I, II and... I guess Diablo III) it's not really surprising that players are willing to continue supporting WoW and other blizzard games. I don't really know much about GW2 since I've never played it so I can't really make a comment about it XP

 

A guy on this forum made an MMO with 4 people (or less?), got picked up by MS and is steamrolling ahead. The man is a fluke and I'm gobsmacked at the amount of tinned beans he must of ate to get through the process. But he's a gaming legend in my eyes..

In general I agree, the shear cost of making an RPG is silly never mind adding a networking infrastructure and all the rest. So if it's not fiscally viable, then there's little incentive from investors or board directors to give you money..

 

In terms of numbers, yes they are declining. If you look at Twitch viewer numbers, WoW makes up at least 90% of the viewer count for MMOs. But even WoW is on the decline, at around 7 million subscribers, down from about 12 million four years ago.

Some new MMOs do pop up from time-to-time, such as Wildstar. It was really popular on Twitch for about a month, and then it died off. People just go back to WoW because it's predictable, and all their friends are there.

 

So, wait. People are quitting MMORPG's because it's not fun to watch other people play MMORPG's?

MMORPG's are niche. WoW made them more mainstream, but number wise the game never had as many players as the most popular conservative radio talk show in America has listeners. It's not that enormous of a group of people, it's just diverse... everybody knows a WoW player. Everybody also knows a Rush Limbaugh listener but they don't always know it, and when you wrap your mind around it... you probably know more Rush Limbaugh listeners than you know WoW players, but Rush Limbaugh is just some obscure radio show and WoW is mainstream American culture. Numbers are fun, aren't they? Hell, even Runescape boasts that it has/had 15-18 million active players at some point.

Here's why I quit MMORPG's and why they, quite frankly, suck ass and always sucked ass:

• Target audience is broke people. Seriously, what employed person can play 4-6 hours a day?
  
• Rewarding people with no lives, e.g. more runs = more loot = better gear = more enjoyment if you don't have a 9-5 or a family.
• Rewarding extremely unhealthy lifestyle habits. Do you enjoy fresh air and exercise? Too F***in' bad. Grab your sticks and raid, boy. Tired? Drink mountain dew. Hungry? Eat something you can make quick. Heart problem at 23? Worth it.
  
• Online assholes, you know who you are.
  
• Blatant greed, i.e. grinding, cooldowns to make you keep coming back, repeatable fetch quests, etc.
  
• Forced teaming, e.g. division of good skills across multiple classes so you need lots of friends to get far.

Brilliantly they've taken the exact same pie of XXX million players (population of a small country to be sure) and continued to divide them up more and more across an increasingly larger number of different games. Profitability (lol, what's that????) so now they had to go freemium on everything because, again, broke people... and so what's the point?

Might as well make a phone app.

 

I was more or less referring to the influence it has on a potential buyer when it comes to purchasing and playing the game. It's fairly encouraging to purchase a game that many people are interested in watching, because you can Stream yourself playing the game and possibly earn money while doing so (through donations, or subscriptions if you make it big in PvP), or maybe you just want to talk to different people outside of the game while you play.

A game having a high viewer-count is basically being advertised by Twitch as a popular game. If lots of people are watching and playing the game, it may influence someone who wants to play a new game to buy/play the popular game.

 

No, I'm just making an estimation that an MMO's player base is roughly proportional to its Twitch viewer count. WoW has the most viewers, so I assume the most players too.

Oh yeah, Runescape isn't doing too badly either, so maybe my numbers on WoW were a bit high. In either case, people seemed to be attracted to the old and familiar when it comes to MMOs, not necessarily the best graphics.

What games are mainstream?

 

Misterselmo nailed it IMHO.

Guys, we speak about people who have absolutely no live. Soo... how do you kill someone who has no live? (you know where that comes from?)

 

LMOA

 

I played MMOs when I was a teenager because I had nothing better to do when I was tired of de_dust and (8)Big Game Hunters.

 

In the US in suburbs especially the sidewalks, parks, public transportation, and bike paths really are about non-existent. You step out your door and you're practically in the street. In big cities and country I remember there are a lot of nice things to do outside.

 

MMO's are in decline because they are giant skinner boxes with a lot investment on the time invested falicy.

You can't break the skinner box formula and do something engaging or new because people are so firm on what they expect out of an MMO.

People are getting wise to the skinner box thing and are simply opting for less painful, more accessable options such as web and phone games.

And laslty WoW is caniblizing its self with pay to level option. That undoes the time invested falicy and a player who has played from day one is not as afraid to walk away from this soul crushing, life ruining, psychological exploit of compulsion disorder.

 

I remember a guy at work that had big problems because of WoW. I felt bad for him and a bit confused.

 

That's hilarious, they will actually give you a level 90 hero for $60. That's so contradictory to their previous policies.

 

There will always be millions of people who like to play MMO's so no they are not going to "die". The challenge for game developers is that many gamers are no longer willing to pay the subscription fees like they were in the past so you have to find a way to still make a profit as the infrastructure costs can be intense. Right now unfortunately that means freemium model, but I am hoping that changes.

Sure people like to point out the negatives but that is unfair without pointing the positives, of which there are many. I think the future of MMO's is perhaps smaller worlds but more depth and expressiveness, you can already see some of this with the new everquest where it is basically a AAA graphics minecraft building game + your typical openworld RPG combined.

 

Casual and mobile. You're welcome for doing your research for you.

 

Yeah, MMOs definitely won't die. But there could be a strong decline. Same with RTS, still alive but very much a niche thing.

I like Zero Punctuation's take on WoW.

 

I would just sew it up more quickly. They're not going to die... they're just going to become this obscure, unplayable thing that will shed players until there are only the core niche players left. The number of MMORPG's will reduce proportionately as the market declines (instead of waves of new MMO's hitting the market as players decline like we have now) and all the MMO players will end up playing (probably) some freemium model that makes EA rich. Subscriptions are part of the past. Why pay to play when you can get that same level of content for free and then pay for extra in-game cash? I mean, lots of people pay subs and buy illegal in-game Chinese gold. So, it's just cheaper not to pay subs. With game devs having no other skills they're gonna have to do something for a living. It's economics + common sense.

 

Are we all basing this pretty much entirely on MMORPGs like World of Warcraft? Not all are like this .

I'm thinking specifically about Ankama's Dofus, the tactical MMORPG. It's one I've enjoyed for many years, now. Mostly because I appreciate the brain exercise it gives me, though I can't say I like the silly art a whole lot. Tactical games have always been my favorite. But unfortunately I can only make 1-2 hours per day of time for it nowadays, if even.

This game isn't hugely popular here in America, but it's very popular where Ankama exists - in France.

 

That guy is brilliant.

 

Very pretty looking game that nobody ever heard of. French? Just like the word niche.

 

You guys talk like all MMO's but Wow are failures. Trion Worlds runs 3 MMORPG's and employs hundreds of people, it is not as bad as some make it out to be or as unprofitable.

 

I'm surprised you didn't mention Wakfu

 

Then they'll be one of the few that survive, but when that "hundreds" of people is able to be reduced to "a hundred" it will, it's just business.

 

WoW and Runescape are the only two that currently have a strong sustained user base.

That's not to say others aren't successful for a while. Rift had a good run. Defiance sucked imo, but still probably got ok sales.

Wildstar, Guild Wars 2, and SWTOR also did well at the start, so they probably made a respectable amount of money too. It's just that their popularity has fallen off a lot recently.

 

"Nobody". You mean you? Can't really speak for everyone. After all, over 60 million people have played it. And it is going strong after 10 years.

 

Why does a single MMO need to run forever? That is exactly why new ones constantly come out, it is like any other game in that regard. You launch, it makes money for awhile, then you start working on your next. It is fully expected that they will lose subscribers and die out as the content is exhausted and they become dated. I think the idea that a MMORPG has to be around 10+ years is the problem.

 

That number might be a bit bloated, because Dofus is susceptible to bots.

From what I understand, several million(s) of bots have to be banned per year in Dofus.

I guess its because players are using them for RMT purposes? Not really sure since I've never played Dofus and was only told about the bots from former Dofus players.

 

Yes, it is plagued by bots. That is true. I was basing that number off the infograph Ankama provided, but I'm not sure if they've included bots in. I suppose they wouldn't have an easy way to distinguish between the two.

There are entire businesses based on these bots collecting virtual currency and selling it for profit to players. Although Ankama has been cracking down heavily on them.

 

0.0092307692307692% of people have played that game in a ten year span.

I like numbers, they are my companion.

In a stadium of 100,000 people, you could find 9 people who have played that game.

The average person only knows 250 people. Nobody has played that game.

It's not just players, though. It's how much money they make from those players. Not only this, but let's just acknowledge that things lose popularity over time.

 

MMOs aren't "normal" games. In a game, like, say, Assassin's Creed, you play through the game for 20-30 hours at which point you've exhausted the content.

In an MMO you are strongly invested in your character, and in the community surrounding it. The bigger question is: how is a game like WoW able to stick around for so long? And why does it dominate the others for so long?

People can't get away from it because they put so much damn time into their heroes. And they also can't give up their friends in the game. It's a lot like real life. Your hero is a representation of your social status.

 

If "0.0092307692307692%" is 60 million, then that's still far from nobody, regardless of what a percentage states. Nobody is 0, and 60 million is, well, 60 million more than 0.

From the stats I've read, though, Dofus hasn't lost popularity over its 10 years. There's been debate about it with the forums, but Ankama has always stated that it's looking as good as ever.

Maybe it will lose popularity. But I think Ankama has made some brilliant decisions with monetization/profit, and with keeping players interested (although they've certainly made a few mistakes as well!)

The only reason it's more popular in France is because that's where the best marketing has occurred. I'm sure it would be equally popular in America if the same marketing effort went into America.

 

Wakfu... Kappa?

 

I think there are going to be a lot of new innovative MMOs soon. Haven't you guys seen the threads around here?

 

Actually I haven't. I bounce between 40 Google Chrome tabs (previously 325 FireFox tabs before I switched to Chrome) and typically focus on Scripting and Discussion. What Unity MMOs are in the works right now?

 

Can't speak much for Wakfu, as I've never played it nor been interested in it. All I know about that is Square Enix is involved and probably making many of the decisions as well.

 

SE is no longer the publisher for Wakfu since a long time ago (I think it was September 2012), it may have been a bit later than that though.

 

He was being sarcastic.

 

Sure, I am not saying a MMO is the same as a single player game. What I challenge is that a MMO that runs for 2 years is somehow a "failure" if it makes an overall profit for the company that made it and allows them to make a new game with their lessons learned from the first.

 

Is that true? Well, that shows how much I've been following Wakfu.

 

It is more than 0. It is .0092% more than zero. Hence, mmo's (even big ones) are niche games. Arguably, all game genres except mobile and casual web player games are niche at this point. Stick your head in a box and that box encompasses the entire universe.

 

I don't know if you could call such a game a failure per se, at least not in a financial sense. But the community surrounding your game, is, well, dead. It also suggests that people bought the game in hopes that it would be better than WoW, but just ended up returning to WoW because it wasn't.

 

Well, yes. I never would expect an MMORPG, or any game, to take the interest of every human on Earth. There aren't nearly that many who even are interested in games to begin with.

However, this tiny percentage of players is plenty enough to keep the game going strong and keep the profits coming. And this MMORPG, as a result, isn't really dying.

 

You could argue about the community aspect, I've played a LOT of MMO's starting with Darksun Online, Ultima Online, DaoC, etc. and I still know people from those games today. My mortgage was underwritten by someone I met in a MMO, they have the ability to create far reaching and lasting social ties which is what many people love about them that you will not find in Angry Birds on your phone.

Either way, they are not dying, they are niche as they always have been, and I think what needs to change is the expectation that any one game is possible of holding our attention for a decade when we have new choices, for free, presented multiple times a year. It doesn't mean the genre is a failure, it's just more games competing for a niche market so the userbase gets fragmented quicker than it used to when there were a total of 3-5 choices.

 

It's already dead if it's plagued by bots. Somebody needs to fix that issue with online games. There needs to be elegant solutions to wasting people's time just to suck more money. Gamers get older, new gamers aren't playing games like we used to. They're watching Twitch and Pewdiepie. Mmorpgs might have a golden age ahead, like during our golden years.

Meanwhile, CoD:AW is selling below expectations, mmo's can't hold their subscriptions, etc. Times, they are a changin'.

Are you changing with them?

 

I'm going to have to ask you to do your research before commenting, because this is simply not in accordance with reality. Maybe it is true for World of Warcraft, but that's not what I'm talking about.

 

No idea what you're talking about, in general, at this point.

 

Then it looks like you may have to go re-read earlier posts. Those should make it clear.