NX Rumors and my personal opinion.

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So we've all seen this image and the rumors ya? The NX described by this picture is irritating me. It looks goofy. It looks incredibly gimmicky, and I won't buy it. I'm an avid Nintendo fan too. Does anyone here want to make games for this thing? It doesn't seem right, feels like a lie. But at the same time Nintendo is chasing tail for the casual gamers. I just don't like where this is going. There's speculation between youtubers on whether or not there will be a docking station with a second GPU and dividing the specs just makes it a mess.

I'm not sure where to go with NX but if I was in charge, I'd make a Nintendo HDS instead. A stronger 3ds with the ability to be played on your tv. That's it. No gimmicky detachable controllers, no tablet sized gamepads, no portable tablet monitors with a kickstand or anything like that. It'll play anything on the Nintendo Eshop, all ds, 3ds and hds games. Stick with the clam shell design. Replace the C stick with a second circle pad. Call it a wrap.

Anyone else worried about this?

 

I'm not worried because I've come to expect very little from Nintendo in the first place.

 

People still buy this stuff?

 

What you do you expect nintendo to do, enter an arms race of tech vs sony and ms?

 

I'm reserving judgment until I see the actual thing. I don't necessarily like the basic premise behind it, but I'm not going to get worried or upset about rumors and mock ups.

The only rumor I'm interested in is about there being a Pokemon launch title. Curious what they do with that since Pokemon has been pretty much reserved for their mobile platform, and Sun and Moon are both coming out. Probably another spin off gimmick like Poken Tournament.

 

Basically it's a PlayStation Vita with detachable controllers, right?

If someone will buy the developer hardware for me.

It's Nintendo. They're more of a family-oriented company than their competitors.

No. I'm not worried in the slightest. Nintendo hardware will sell because people love their games.

 

I feel the way about this that I feel about all unsubstanciated game rumors. I don't care.

I'll care when Nintendo says something.

 

Despite every Internet complaint, Nintendo has been producing consoles and games for then successfully for a long time.

And why not? The casual market is much bigger and more profitable then traditional core markets.

Sure core gaming is still relevant. But it's on it's way to becoming a niche market.

 

I would argue that at least on the mobile market, the DS games are pretty "hardcore".

 

Why not? Its not like Sony or MS are REALLY into loss leaders themselves this time. That is why the PS4 and XBOX ONE were slightly disappointing even when they came out, being built from semi-off-the-shelf x86 parts and all, with a SoC instead of a dedicated CPU and GPU.

That is why now, when both finally one-up their subpar hardware for what should have been the 1080p/60Hz console generation, what comes out is finally fitting this description, but the crowd has moved on and both console makers are yet again overreaching, selling their new consoles as 4k (for video maybe... else only with upscaling) or VR consoles (barely scratching the ridicolously low minimum threshold for VR Hardware).

The current console generation was actually not much of a loss leader. The new half-gen seems to be not either.
Nintendo could just as well join the AMD/x86 hypetrain and get adequat performance for cheap. They could even get away with a slightly higher base price for a slightly less performant console if their system sellers were good.


IMO:


Nintendo should either do a Wii (non U, just get rid of the stupid second screens already!) on Steroids, and pray motion controls being used well still sells in 2016/17.
Given they have awesome first party titles that are more than just motion control gimmicks, and the console is also pretty up to date this time, AND they for once make it easier for thirdparty devs to develop for the console (like finally moving to x86, and maybe openGL/Vulkan), I don't see what could go wrong there.

OR they should finally get into the console arms race again and try to one-up Sony/MS, like in the good old SNES / N64 days.
Even if they are not ending up on top of the pack (like they did with the N64 because it was still using cartridges), they would be at least more or less on par. Enter the awesome firstparty games, and the console would have an instant advantage over its competitors.
Think about it. The XBOX ONE vs PS4 battle would have been pretty even without some of the misssteps of MS, even though the XBOX ONE IS inferior to the PS4 when it comes to power. If Nintendo manages to NOT piss off most of their customer base while hyping the product, and then has awesome system sellers from the start (which is something I am STILL waiting on for both the PS4 and XBOX ONE), they might actually come out on top.


As to the crippled chimera that shapes up to be the next Nintendo Console... no. Just no.
Either get rid of the TV peripheral crap that will only drive up the price into PS4 Neo / XBOX Scorpio territory, and make it the 3DS Successor (which many people would like. For a Handheld, the Nvidia X2 offers quite a lot of Ooomph, and the physical controls and the Nintendo first party games could set it apart from the mobile devices easely).

Or get rid of that mobile SoC, and use something that is really powerful enough for 1080p/60Hz.
Yes, I know Nintendo builds their consoles primarily for their own firstparty titles and seems to be adamant about avoiding loss leaders.
And from what I read, the X2 MIGHT be quite fast for a mobile SoC, compared to the 3 years old hardware in the current consoles.


My personal opinion: not nearly powerful enough for a TV Console in 2017 (1080p/60Hz should be the minimum now). Not nearly cheap enough for a Handheld in 2017 (the X1 wasn't the cheapest SoC, guess the X2 will not be given away by Nvidia, and Nintendo really likes not creating loss leaders. Then there are the additional cost to make it work as a TV Console. I would guess a price of 300-400$, minimum, for the console. Add 50$ per game, and mobile devices with physical controls added suddenly look like a bargain).

Really, Nintendo seems to be all over the place lately. Guess the Success with the Wii and 3DS has really sent them off in the wrong direction, at least when it comes to hardware.
They should concentrate on making good platforms to play awesome first party titles on, and an ecosystem to attract thirdparty support, instead on prototyping gimmick after gimmick and market testing them with live products.


EDIT: "But Nintendo is casual games nowadays!!!"

Yes, I am aware of the fact that Nintendo put out casual games long before that was even a word.
But: Most Nintendo games are NOT casual games. Super Mario Bros is not a casual game. Mario Kart is not a casual game. Zelda is not a casual game.

Mario Party might be one, as where many of the motion control gimmick games (though how "casual" a Wii tennis was when you really had to train your swings to get good at it, IDK).

Many Nintendo games traditionally have been hardcore games with childfriendly optics. Because their core audience might be kids, but these are not really the core audience of casual games.


Then there is the fact that mobile does casual pretty good nowadays. When you have such a large sample size of casual games on the mobile app stores, there HAVE to be enough good ones to make Nintendos roster of games look tiny.

And make no mistake, the mobile devs have perfected the art of the "casual game" while Nintendo was still trying to find their (new) niche.


Nintendo NEEDs their hardcore-ish games. They are their tradition, they are what they still do best. Most of their attempts at dumbing down their old system sellers (see Mario Party), where good, but not miles away from the competition.
If they are just another casual game company that create 3-s clones, or fun-with-physics games, they will not be able to keep their position.


EDIT 2:

So reading more into this, seems contrary to some reports I read (which had the X2 sporting the 2 Denver cores some X1 already had as CPU part, and still only 256 CUDA cores as in the X1 as GPU part, just updated to the Pascal arch), the X2 is still pretty much an unknown.

Best case the GPU part doesn't just get an arch upgrade, but also uses the newest manufacturing process to cram in double as much shader cores. Which would then place the theoretical TFLOPS at 1024. MAYBE they can up the frequency, especially given that the SoC is better cooled in a console than a mobile device.

So we MIGHT get the GPU part to perform at current XBOX ONE levels... though it is a stretch, really.

If they cannot cram in 4, or better 8 Denver cores, the CPU power will be almost as lacking as it was in the Wii U. True, seems like the Denver cores are quite state of the art for ARM devices. Maybe 4 of them would be enough for a games console, don't know. I would still put my money on the lower clocked Jaguar cores in the PS4 and XBOX ONE being faster, and there are 8 of them. Not that this matters much for the NX.

What does matter is that the GPU Part most probably can only push 1080p/60Hz for simpler graphics. The CPU part might not be fast enough for complex physics and all, so devs will need to use GPU cores for that, or just simplify it further.
This all point in the direction that when it comes to crossplattform titles, the NX will again be skipped by many devs. Too much work to make a modern game run on such hardware, while Nintendo consoles no longer have the big audiences they once enjoyed.

I am not really sure this can work unless mainly marketed as handheld device.

EDIT 3:

And lastly, taken into account that Devkits currently run the much slower X1 according to rumours, and the upgrade to the X2 is just another rumour, I guess all my blabbering above is pretty pointless as we are speculating on nothing besides rumours...

Okay, now I am done... I just WISHED Nintendo would go back to their glory days, guess that is clear by now... and pretty much wishful thinking, like Sega getting back into the hardware business

 

When I heard about it I thought of it as kind of a 'transition' between a console and a mobile device. ... because you can hook it up to tv etc and it can sit there being a console but then you're also not 'tied to' the tv, you can pick it up and go with it using the screen... it's sort of like the best of both worlds and the ultimate in versatility. In a way I do feel like it people-pleases too many audiences at once and games for mobile are often very different than games for tv etc, but we'll see. I guess they're trying to maximize the reach of the audience and see traditional 'attached to the tv' boxes as suffering a limitation.

 

I would care to point out that every time in this industry that a company enjoys overwhelming success with a platform, it has always been because their competition screwed up in some way.

People talk fondly of Nintendo's "glory-days." But Nintendo's ascendance in the home console space was purely the result of Atari messing up in the early 80s. The original NES was woefully underpowered when it came out. It succeeded thanks to solid games, solid and well-considered marketing, and the glaring failure of some of its primary competition. It's also worth pointing out that this overwhelming success was largely a product of the U.S. market. (where Atari had tanked so hard) In the Japanese market, Nintendo was in a much less dominant position, with greater competition to deal with.

This principle has held true for the entire history of the games industry. The dominance of the PS1 was due to Nintendo's refusal to embrace CD technology or loosen their restrictions on 3rd party developers. (which also tied into their refusal to adopt CD technology) The dominance of the Wii was a result of catchy motion controls, but also mainly the mistake of attempting to push high-definition graphics a few years too early. And the current success of the PS4 is largely due to Microsoft messing up so badly with the initial design and purpose of the Xbox One, and Nintendo's failure to message the Wii U properly.

Bottom line, just trying to make a more powerful hardware platform is the last thing that Nintendo should do right now. Making such an attempt will lead to nothing but failure. It isn't what's best for developers, consumers, or Nintendo themselves.

 

Come on, all you folk treating gaming HW like men polishing their kitted-out cars, with all the HW changes since it's inception the only constant with Nintendo has been their IP & game quality. Good. Nintendo succeeds because of it's games and the IP those games make popular.

 

You must not have seen the sections of reddit that I have.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PCMasterRace

 

Well now! I apologize then to all those hard-working men polishing their cars and kitting them out - which is actually very expensive and hard work.

 

Nintendo should simply deploy new hardware using the existing "standard" console technology, including an AMD APU based design similar to the PS4/XBox One. Nintendo simply needs to achieve hardware parity, not hardware advantage. Nintendo could achieve hardware parity cheaply and easily at this point. Nintendo could differentiate themselves through their core IP, including Mario and Zelda titles.

That is what I think Nintendo should do. What I expect Nintendo actually will do is release yet another underpowered console (slower than existing PS4 and XBox One) with non-standard controls. It will be yet another Nintendo console that won't run popular 3rd party AAA titles.

 

What you're proposing is a terrible idea. We can be sure of this because it's EXACTLY what they did with the Wii U. The Wii U is the most industry-standard system Nintendo ever released. It had power parity with the Xbox 360 and PS3. It's controller has all of the buttons and analog sticks, in the correct configurations to make it on-par with it's major competition. You could port games to it that ran just as well on the Wii U as they had on the 360 and PS3, with no actual changes to the control scheme.

The inclusion of the touchscreen was the only real deviation, and it was largely optional. Most games only ever used it as a map screen, or as an optional 2nd screen for playing the game while someone else was using the TV. It was essentially EXACTLY the scenario you just described. And to date, it has been one of Nintendo's least successful hardware platforms.

I can't say what will bolster Nintendo's fortunes at this point. Nintendo in the past decade has been most successful when it is experimenting with some off-the-wall ideas that only seem obvious after the fact. All I can say for certain is that your idea of what they should do won't lead anywhere, and by now Nintendo definitely knows this.

 

I would call the SNES days the "glory days of Nintendo", because it was that console that REALLY had no competition... the Genesis/Mega Drive wasn't inferior in total (better resolution for example), but it was inferior in the areas that really counted at the time (that SNES Soundchip was a miracle). The NES on the other hand wasn't really superior to the Master System (or the other consoles that got under the Bus during the crash)....

Anyway, not going to nitpick on which of Nintendos great successes was betterer


But, adressing your last sentence: Yes, you are partially right IMO. Nintendo shouldn't JUST make a more powerful platform.
They should do that AND make sure they work their usual miracles when it come to first party games, AND woe thirdparty devs more.

Fact is, if you platform is so underpowered as the Wii U was compared to the Sony and MS offerings, you need to work double as hard to make up for the perceived inferiority. The gimmicks of the console seemed to not have added true value to the console this time, and for multiple reasons undercutting the competition was also not possible. Sony and MS managed to make their consoles cheap as chips already (by going with a comparatively underpowered SoC themselves this time), and that gimmick controllers with a second screen are not free either.

We have already seen that first party games alone do NOT sell a console. The Wii U is testament to that.
Do not forget, not matter how popular Nintendo games were in the past, with every console generation Nintendo messes up they are loosing parts of their fanbase. Back in the nineties everyone owned a Nintendo console of some sorts. Nowadays, only a small fraction of all players (though the total is much higher).


I guess IF the console really works as 3DS on steroids, and is not just a gimmick as handheld, then Nintendo might have a real USP. As long as the whole console keeps the cost under control.
I could see it working if the whole TV base and additional controllers were separate extras, and the handheld base unit was kept to 3DS Price levels. A powerful handheld console for 200-250$ would certainly sell pretty well.

Competition from mobile devices is not so bad given the control schema on this devices is pretty different, and they lack the Nintendo system sellers. Also getting a cutting edge device normally costs you 600$+...


As soon as Nintendo starts to market this as a TV console, they WILL come into competition against Sony and MS. Firstparty games alone will not save them. The console needs to be competitive in power and price with the other offerings, unless Nintendo manages to pull another stunt as with the original Wii and bring something that can make the console unique.
If that is still going to happen in 2017 when the current fad, VR, basically is just built on raw power that doesn't exists yet outside of very expensive gaming PCs, I have my doubts. Sony already has their device in place for that space, and will launch it just around the time the NX comes out. There is nothing Nintendo could add to the VR expierience save improving on the already existing concepts. All while, if the rumours are to be believed, not having a console really fit for any kind of VR gaming save some very scaled back expieriences.

If the hybrid concept can bring that uniqueness the Wii U lacked IDK. Some people seem to be pretty pumped about the idea, most probably because they hope for a powerful new handheld... that can output to the TV with ease (what every newer mobile device already does anyway).
The concept would have been new and fresh 10 years ago.... today? Just another mobile device that tries to replace your PC / Video game console / TV remote.... get in the back of the line, Nintendo. Oh, and by the way, it never REALLY worked out that well (were is my MS Phone that replaces my Windows 10 PC for example?).


I still think Nintendo should focus their inventiveness on their games, and get back to more traditional hardware offerings. Make good, up to date, quality hardware, good first party titles, and woe the thirdparty devs. That will attract the crowd.


As to the hybrid solution. I do see why some people are getting excited for it. I for my part would be more excited about a new DS, WITH that Nvidia SoC in it, a traditional Handheld (if it has to be, make it a clamshell with a second screen, though I am not really pumped about that). Give it a HDMI output, and add optional controllers.
Everyone that is now pumped for a hybrid would get the same thing. Minus some additional cost caused by those gimmicky controllers and bases that Nintendo seems to plan.

And it would still leave the possibility open for releasing a TV console later down the line, which could get a more powerful x86 SoC like the competition does. If you want to make it extra cool, have it play New Ds games over an emulated ARM SoC, given the x86 SoC should be 4x as fast as the Nvidia X2 if you pick a modern one, that shouldn't be a problem.

This hybrid solution seems to try to fill both shoes at once. I fear it will not fill one of them fully. Lets hope Nintendo concentrates on the console rocking as handheld device, and making it small and light enough for that with a great battery life.
It will not be a great TV console anyway.

No they didn't.

The Wii U employed a horribly underpowered CPU, and a GPU that was just about getting even with a console generation that was already on its way out by then. Nintendo clearly was picking cheap components, hoping the newest gimmick controls and first party titles could make up for their subpar hardware.

Sure you could port XBox 360 games because of the power of the console... but at the time, many devs were already starting to develop for the newer consoles coming out a year or two later, leaving only the ones that did ports for the older consoles with an easy porting option.
And for them, they already had double as many builds to juggle now with PS3/PS4 and 360/One builds... why add a fifth one?

Add to that the general arrogant stance Nintendo has had for its entire history towards thirdparty devs (don't think that has changed during the Wii U era, seen articles complaining about it from 2014), and its clear why nobody really bothered with a PS3 / Xbox 360 generation console that came 5 years to late.

 

And what makes you think that anything about that would change, just from Nintendo offering more powerful hardware? Nintendo has never been good at courting 3rd party developers. You keep hammering on about them changing that, but how likely is it that would actually happen. And more importantly, how likely is it that they would be able to improve in this area to a degree necessary to compete with Sony and Microsoft? Those two companies have been "wooing" 3rd party developers far longer, more effectively, and continue to do so. Sony pandered shamelessly to developers in the very design of the PS4 from the ground up. There is no chance of Nintendo effectively competing with that.

Then you have your assertion that more powerful hardware is the only viable solution. And when you make that statement, you even freely admit that subsidized hardware is necessary for what you're proposing. And you're right. There's no way that Nintendo would be able to provide comparable or superior processing power without selling whatever the NX ends up being for a loss. They aren't set up for that kind of power disparity, and have no real hardware advantages that their competitors can't leverage. So its either go for more powerful hardware, and sell it at a substantial loss, or take the same route that Nintendo has ALWAYS taken. That is to say, create a hardware platform based on older, cheaper, and proven hardware to optimize cost and stability, instead of chasing the latest, greatest tech.

I still maintain that the plan you are proposing is the equivalent of Nintendo slitting their own throats. You are stating that Nintendo simply has to do everything that their competitors are doing, but do it much, much better and more cheaply. If that was within their ability they would be doing it already. They aren't doing it now because they can't.

The majority of success stories in games is due to the competition making mistakes. But Sony isn't making any mistakes right now. They hired some very smart people to design the PS4, and set them to work quite a bit before the system was even introduced. Those smart people went around and collected a lot of feedback from third parties, and spent their sweet time coming up with a good balance between performance and cost. While some PC master racers might complain about the PS4 and Xbox One being "underpowered," the truth is that the PS4 is an example of Sony at the top of their game. Attempting to go head-to-head with them in the same space would be suicide.

A hard left turn into an underserved market is Nintendo's best option right now. Chasing after the market that Sony and Microsoft are already catering to will lead to ruin.

 

I think Nintendo have bought CastAR and their new platform is an AR/VR hybrid!

Ideal for tabletop games and JRPG's with 3D characters.

 

...
FIXED
...

 

I agree that the Wii U did not work out. But I don't agree that situation is immediately applicable to the current situation. The PS3 shipped in 2006. The Wii U shipped in 2012. If the Wii U had shipped much sooner, the Wii U could have been competitive. Waiting six years to match the performance of a competitor is never a good strategy.

Consumer expectations shifted a lot during that period of time. The Wii U shipped with PS3 level graphics about the same time the PS4 was being announced. Consumers knew they could completely ignore the Wii U and jump directly to the next generation graphics if they waiting a year.

If Nintendo matched the performance of the PS4 right now, then the gap would only be three years. Nintendo could even shoot for the half generation better graphics if they wanted to, and immediately match the upcoming PS4.5/PS4k and XBox One S.

The failure of the Wii U was the result dreadful timing. It does not prove a strategy of matching performance failing. It just proves that releasing hardware parity six years late is doomed to fail.

 

Nintendo isn't interested in the cpu/gpu arms race. Nintendo dominates handheld gaming and has done so since game and watch. Go figure.

 

Just to be very clear, I am definitely not advocating that Nintendo releases a console that significantly outperforms Sony and Microsoft. I am definitely not saying the Nintendo NX should have an Intel i7 and an NVidia Titan X. What I have said is Nintendo should try to match the performance of the P4 and XBox One or they should try to match the performance of the upcoming half generation models (PS4.5/PS4k/XBox One S).

Nintendo should match the hardware performance of their main rivals, and then innovate with their games. I think this is what others are saying as well. I don't think anybody expects Nintendo to deliver a console that is vastly more powerful and cheaper at the same time. Nintendo should simply use the same very low cost AMD APU based designs that Sony and Microsoft are using, so Nintendo can achieve performance parity.

 

Honestly, I don't agree. I think its a poor strategy.

 

Except it wasn't just timing. There was the brand confusion from the name (that still persists); the failed attempt at bringing the DS paradigm to the home console space; the complete inability to court third parties again after Nintendo stated how this wouldn't be an issue again; the launch price being higher than the competition who had far more substantial game libraries); the two launch models, both of which required an external hard drive if you wanted to download and install more than a couple games; Nintendo's still busted-ass online systems...

There's more than just that, but the Wii U was basically a disaster from launch and it wasn't just a timing issue. The issue is that, and this is key, Nintendo has no idea how to compete in the home console space anymore.

 

You're assuming that because Wii U sales were bad. Yet all their other devices which are still used in the home outsell all other consoles with ease. You're forgetting the handhelds, which are actually nintendo's bread and butter.

To clarify the arms war comments I've made: simply trying to keep up will only paint you as a business that only plays catch up. It's commercial suicide. Instead nintendo are doing their own path, which means they aren't competing at all. This is very clever and why nintendo (which has been in business longer than all it's competitors combined) is going to be just fine.

 

I agree that timing was not the only problem in the Wii U, but I honestly believe it was the main problem. With the Wii U, Nintendo managed to deliver hardware parity six years late. By the time the Wii U was released, some developers were already working on PS4 and XBox One projects. If Nintendo had released the Wii U several years sooner, more developers would have been excited about porting their PS3 and XBox360 projects to the Wii U.

 

It wasn't just the Wii U though. It was also the Gamecube sales (which was largely due to timing, admittedly), and even the Nintendo 64 sales. Nintendo hasn't really competed in the home console space since the Wii, which succeeded because the casual gaming market was far greater than anyone could have expected at the time. Before that, the last success they really had was with the SNES.

And I'm not forgetting handhelds, but purposefully ignoring them because I'm talking about the livingroom experience here.

 

That's just it though. Nintendo isn't interested in fighting for space in the living room any more. It's interested in you being able to play it anywhere.

 

Timing is part of the issue, but it isn't the only factor.

Example: The Wii's success wasn't purely about timing, but timing did factor into why it succeeded. But it wasn't the timing of the Wii itself, but the timing of its competitors that was actually significant. The XBox 360 and the PS3 came out sooner than they should have. Plain and simple. They were high-definition focused consoles that released several years before high definition displays started to be broadly adopted. This seriously hampered their early adoption, as game fans who would likely be interested in acquiring one of these devices early knew enough to avoid them if they didn't already have a high-definition screen.

When you figure in other factors, such as the higher price of those systems, you begin to see why the XBox 360 and PS3 had a difficult time with early adoption. You also see part of the reason why the Wii was able to have a meteoric rise, and an almost equally steep fall-off. The Wii was able to profit from the failings of its competitors. While they had to wait for general consumer technology to play catch-up, the Wii was able to sell an affordable system to the masses with a neat gimmick. It was the right product at the right time.

But the lesson to take away from this isn't to emulate current successes. The vast majority of success stories in games are about products that are able to take advantage of the failings of their competitors. But as far as home consoles are concerned, the PS4 and XBox One are stiff competition. Both platforms are seasoned now, entrenched and well-positioned to fend off any comparable effort from Nintendo. Sony is at the top of their console game, and Microsoft has shifted hard in order to stay in the running. If Nintendo tries to make another system like the PS4 or XBox One, they are doomed to failure. It will sell about as well as the current Wii U, maybe even less.

The truth is, no one actually likes having platform exclusives. It's one of the prices you pay for such rabid competition. And this much competition is better for consumers. But having to purchase multiple expensive hardware platforms to play specific games is not good for the consumer. It is the price we pay for this much competition. If Nintendo wants to compete, they are going to have to make something that can't be had on their competitor's systems.

 

Thing is we're seeing a race now. Console upgrade cycles are getting closer to mobile. 4 year gap between new consoles. It's a dangerous precedent or a inevitable one.

 

Not quite so. The "upgraded" consoles being announced by Microsoft and eventually Sony are an attempt to extend their existing consoles, as opposed to replacing them. They are designed to be hardware upgrades, as opposed to straight replacements, and they will by their nature be optional. They are a high-end alternative that anyone with the necessary money can indulge in, but won't be required to in order to play the latest titles.

This is a savvy move, and shows a better understanding of the market than either company has exhibited in the past. The Scorpio and the (theoretical) Neo aren't new consoles, they're just iterations. They are the equivalent of the iterative upgrades that Nintendo has been applying to their handheld lines for decades now. They are still based on the core specs of their predecessors, but with slight upgrades.

Of course, all of this will simply make the PS4 and XBox One even more formidable competitors for Nintendo to stack up against. Both Sony and Microsoft will continue to maintain the original versions of their systems and use them as a budget-priced entry point for their console offerings going forward.

 

Or in the case of Nintendo the console is becoming mobile. Which if you ask me that's what they should have done with the Wii U. Instead we got this awkwardly oversized controller that was more reminiscent of a mobile console like the PlayStation Vita but completely lacked any processing capabilities of its own and had to be very close to the console.

 

I fail to see how that's any different from

What is the difference? you buy a new phone or you buy a new console. Upgrade or replace, it's irrelevant. It's unlikely we'll ever lose backward compat at this point.

 

You just answered your own question. THAT is exactly what is different. And it wasn't always that way. In fact, it usually wasn't that way with consoles in particular. Having backwards compatibility be a long-term assurance for console ownership is actually a pretty big deal. We haven't seen that kind of long-term guarantee in the console space for quite some time.

On the one hand, this will hold some developers back, as they will be saddled with the limitations of the PS4 and XBox One's current processing power for the next decade and change, maybe longer. But having long-term backwards compatibility is actually good for consumers, and ultimately better for the stability and longevity of those platforms.

Of course, all this does draw into question what kind of backwards compatibility the NX could hope for if the rumored design for it is even close to being true.

 

Or we'll simply see games with 30FPS on the older consoles and 60FPS on the newer ones.

 

No, you got it wrong.

1) I never said they had more powerful hardware is the only solution. I said it needs to be PART of the solution if Nintendo really is aiming for the TV Console market.
And I also said that if Nintendo instead targets a handheld console, the planned hardware actually is powerful enough. I was questioning what the TV-Console addons currently planned according to rumours would add to their offering in this case.

2) More powerful hardware will not change the way Nintendo treats thirdparty devs... but I never said that. Again, I propose IF Nintendo wants to target the TV Console market, they need to a) upgrade to better hardware, b) cut the gimmick experimentation somewhat back, c) make sure their first party offering are topnotch (and I have little doubt that at least that they will do either way), c) treat thirdparty devs better.
Just doing ONE of those will not bring back market shares. They need to do ALL of it.

3) Sony is making mistakes alright. The PS4 was so-so when it came out. Obviously Sony didn't want a 600$ console this time around, and they didn't want to loose as much money on every console sold, hence the rather disappointing hardware.
Only helped by the Xbox One being even more controversial. The amount of console exclusive system sellers is still below average. There are some Naughty dog titles, but really, looking through the list of exclusive games is a short read.
Now, Nintendo cannot really capitalize on the weak hardware as the PS4 Neo corrects that somewhat, and Nintendo most probably doesn't want to create much of a loss leader or overpriced console themselves.
They CAN catch Sony on the exclusives part. If both consoles are in the same power range (which to me means 1080p/60Hz, helped by Nintendo games usually having simpler graphics), have similar thirdparty titles (and here comparable power IS essential!), but Nintendo aces Sony on Firstparty exclusives, Nintendo can capitalize the one error Sony has made with the PS4.

4) I am not proposing Nintendo does the same as Sony or MS. I am proposing if Nintendo wants to compete with Sony and MS in THEIR market, TV Consoles, there is a minimum threshold their hardware must meet so Nintendo can really use their own advantages to the fullest without being hindered by their lacking hardware.
IF the X2 is as powerful as it COULD be, and the NX DOES get the X2, sure, thirdparty devs COULD theoretically port over games from their XBOX ONE builds without having to lower quality settings much. Given the install base of PS4 / XBOX One consoles, adoption of PS4 NEO /XBOX Scorpio consoles will be somewhat slow, with mostly the people like me who were disappointed with the PS4 / XBOX ONE and skipping them buying the newer models.

That could still mean in 2-3 years, the situation looks quite different. If Sony gets fed up with the devs having to support 2 console tiers, and really wants to one up Nintendo, they could offer a trade in scheme for the older PS4 models somewhere down the line.
We still don't know yet if MS will operate the XBOX Scorpio similarly to Sony, or if they are ready to start a new console cycle with backward compatibility (thanks to x86) already.

End result would be again devs developing for consoles 3-4.5 times more powerful than the NX, having to cut back their games considerably to have them run on the NX.

Basically Nintendo is betting on Sony and MS NOT doing anything "stupid" here and keeping their current console cycle alive for the usual 7 years. And devs support the older consoles for all that time. If anything out of the ordinary happens that forces Sonys and MS hands, and players and devs migrate to more powerful hardware quicker than anticipated, the NX could be left in the dust again.

Sure, that doesn't affect firstparty games much. But then, that was also the case with the Wii U....

5) More powerful hardware isn't necessarily more expensive, you know. Getting a non-mobile SoC for the same amount of money as what that expensive Nvidia mobile SoC costs today would most probably see the NX surpass the PS4 in power. Maybe already get into PS4 Neo territory. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony paid about the same for the new AMD SoC as Nintendo pays for the X2.
Don't forget that most probably both are produced on a new manufacturing process, not only the AMD SoC.

The ONLY way how Nintendo might save money on the Nvidia SoC is because Nvidia is swallowing part of the cost and offers the chip at a reduced rate to claw back some lost market share in the console world.

Of course more powerful hardware would mean non-mobile. But then, I don't think the idea of a hybrid console is sound. Like all the hybrid devices in the world, it will mostly be a master of none. People will buy it for the novelty first. But in the end, they will only see the disadvantages, like with most other hybrid devices.

As said again, I see going with a dedicated Handheld also as a viable route. I just think that the added cost of those TV Console hybrid gimmicks should then be shaved off by killing them off, and leaving the bare basics (HDMI output, bluetooth for additional controllers) in place for players to use the handheld as a makeshift TV Console.
The X2 certainly is powerful enough for that, and given Nvidia is under pressure in the console world, they will not charge an arm and a leg for once.

6) Well, I have to say I kinda agree with the last statement, though I am not so sure if Nintendo REALLY is in such a bad position to compete with Sony and MS. After all, way over 90% of the current consoles game roosters are made up of non-exclusive games. If Nintendo is ready to woe the devs, and delivers a platform that makes porting easy, they might get a good portion to eventually port their games over. Add the excellent firstparty games, and the most important part of any console, the game rooster, shapes up nicely.
But yeah, given how everyone else has given in to the competition of mobile devices in the handheld space, concentrating on handhelds is not a bad idea for Nintendo right now. A new DS device certainly will sell, and the NX might just be that. As said, I am not questioning the viability of a handheld, just the added cost of the hybrid gimmick and the confused marketing that might put them into direct competition with Sony and MS again, just again with a completly underpowered device, and still way worse thirdparty support.

I would have guessed if you should learn ANYTHING from the Wii U debacle, its not getting near the TV Console market without meeting a min hardware threshold and good thirdparty dev support. Why Nintendo would choose to do it again, just with the added caveat "...and its also a handheld device" is beyond me.

 

On the topic of the hybrid mobile-console device being master of none, let's think about optimization strategies from a game developer point of view. If the NX is a hybrid mobile-console device, then should developers optimize their games for the TV screen or the mobile screen?

There is an obvious balance needed between visual quality and performance. When the developers know the screen is small, they can reduce the complexity of models, reduce texture resolutions, etc. When the developers know the screen is big, they will increase complexity at the expense of performance. If the NX ends up being used for both small and big screens, which screen do you optimize for?

If the NX is a hybrid, there may be performance compromises in the hardware design to achieve mobility. In that case, the NX might just end up being a primarily mobile style device with an HDMI port to give the option to connect it to a TV, but games would end up being optimized for the small screen. That would leave the device uncompetitive as a console device.

 

That is another thing I fear....

Remember that UWP Initiative from MS that made Tim Sweeney rant like hell? Okay, he ranted about it for a completly different reason, but one of the troubles it burdens devs with is to create MULTIPLE interface version, as the idea is that the same application is running on your PCs 24" screen, your phones 4", your tablets 10" screen... and maybe even on the XBOX One connected to your 65" TV!

Yeah, I kinda see why devs are not REALLY standing in line to create UWP apps if THAT is a requirement, not matter how brilliant it might seem from a customers view.

Likewise, having to rearrange your UI for TV and Mobile screens alone, without taking scene complexity or visual quality into consideration, is going to be a pain.
Basically the developer has to develop the whole GUI twice, and then make sure the game plays nice with both UI arrangements.

Graphics most probably cannot be dialed up much when the hybrid is in TV Console mode, unless Nintendo crams a second GPU into the base. Given the additional cost, most probably you only have that X2 to play with, which might be able to clock higher when thetered... then again, given the mobile casing, and thus lacking thermal headroom, most probably not even that.

EDIT: unless... the device actually slashes the clocks when unthetered, and undervolts the SoC to save on battery. Which could be a good idea to get some additional hours of playtime, especially if the small screen is 720p and game devs are required to make their game run in a low power mode like described in the quote.
Of course, not something I as a developer would like, and that powerful handheld suddenly is less powerful when being used as handheld device.


Really, I hope this hybrid concepts are just that... concepts. And that Nintendo came to their senses, and settled on doing one thing well, instead of two things halfbaked.