Is GPU shortage actually getting worse?

Hey! Hey! Get your reality out of my snarky jokes!

 

Which doesn't happen, even in the stimulus. You say "OH THEY JUST PRINT MONEY" but the simple reality is that it doesn't work that way. When the Federal Reserve prints money, what they're actually doing is creating an allocation of a fiat resource (don't get it twisted, proof of work and proof of stake are effectively fiat, their value is inherently tied to fiat currency), but that value is tied to consumer behaviour such as mortgage purchases and payments. It is not money from nothing, but monetary scaffolding being applied to an economy.

Gold is one of the few good value stores because it is both stable in value and exceptionally hard to steal. Not just because every major gold store is massively protected, but because transporting large quantities of gold is effectively impossible to pull off effectively.

A tactic that is rarely done by major players anymore because it's much easier to maintain control over the entirely supply line (see: Apple) and just keep your production numbers at a reasonable level. It turns out that this sort of thing tends to backfire a lot because the most common time for something to negatively impact stock outside of transit is when it's in storage of some sort.

Greece's economy was a combination of the severe rigidity of Eurozone monetary policy (which exists for good reason but somehow managed to backfire in the largest economic crisis between the Great Depression and last year, for some reason), absolutely nightmarish internal political corruption, and the economic crisis I mentioned before. For all the things going on in Greece right now, those bailouts are what keeps it from becoming Yemen.

The reason oil prices recovered was because we found new sources of oil and "improved" ways to extract existing oil, like through fracking and oil sands. Oil is also one of the few things that's kept in reserve (you may have noticed this during a string of hurricanes) because, unlike many things, oil is required to run basically every facet of the economy.

Yes, you can do this with anything, however. You can do this with sheep.

 

I don't think humans will ever stop exploiting each other's suffering and labor, no matter how pointless it is.

 

I promise I'm not an advertiser or spammer(you can see my past posts).

But my Facebook feed showed me a story featuring this PC from Best Buy. Somehow, it's sold out. The reason I mention it is because it comes with the Intel GPU(so I thought it might be relevant to this discussion). Apparently this version is so low end that it's basically an Integrated GPU with RAM and not much else....but as they say, it's the first time I've seen a 3rd contender "in the wild." I'd be highly curious to know if the higher end versions of this GPU would be able to actually compete with Green and Red. A third contender is never a bad thing in my eyes.

 

Yeah Intel's entry into the field has been known for a few years, though we initially expected them to have a stronger "gaming" competitor. The whole chip situation is probably messing with that.

 

In fact it's identical in configuration to the integrated graphics built into their chips. Performance should be a little higher simply because it has dedicated memory rather than shared memory but it's LPDDR4X (low-power system memory) rather than GDDR so the advantage won't be that impressive.

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ax-dgpu-is-slower-than-the-integrated-version

Performance-wise it's comparable to AMD's Vega 6 found in the Ryzen 5000 series.

https://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-Radeon-RX-Vega-6-Ryzen-5000-GPU-Benchmarks-and-Specs.453149.0.html
https://www.notebookcheck.net/Intel...-96EUs-GPU-Benchmarks-and-Specs.462145.0.html

Neither of those were ever going to be the king of integrated though. Apple's M1 holds that crown.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16252/mac-mini-apple-m1-tested/3

Due to limited games on macOS only Shadow of the Tomb Raider is common to all three.

 

I suspect, after finally crypto bubble burst, as it does regularly every few years and China pressure on crypto miners, we possibly may expect soon, surge in second hand GPUs sells.

This may be good time, to keep an eye on the used high end GPUs.

 

Sure, if you want a card that's been running ragged since possibly from the middle of September of last year and likely completely untested for general purpose use. Crypto murdered the quality of used GPUs years ago.

 

All of the hardware reviewers I watch on a regular basis and would consider to be knowledgeable in the field are basically in agreement that you're wearing out the card regardless of workflow and that mining isn't magically far worse than say gaming.

Outside of games like e-sports that aren't demanding on the graphics card most games run the card around their maximum performance. If I play Cyberpunk 2077 for twelve hours that's no different than if I ran NiceHash for the same twelve hours. Both are hitting the card 100% while they run.

It isn't hard to do the math to determine how old the card would be if I had owned it. Since I'm both a gamer and a game developer I'm typically running my card very close to twelve or more hours per day but let's just say it's only twelve. That means a one year old mining card is effectively two years old for me.

To date I have only had a single graphics card fail on me due to excessive use. A GTX 460 which died after six to eight years of heavy use. Only reason it was used that long was because my dad needed a graphics card and it was more than sufficient for him. All other cards typically end up on a shelf as a backup.

I'm not saying you should run out there and buy the first mining card you can get your hands on but if you're careful and only buy a card that is at most a single generation old it should last you until the next upgrade assuming your upgrades happen every two to three generations.

 

Actually it is better to run hardware continuously than switching it on and off, as most consumers do.
It is cooling and heating up process, which applies material stresses and under which, most defects happens.
For longevity, it is better to let hardware running, than turning it off when going to sleep for example.
I suspect, fans may be first to suffer, if running for very long periods, as they got moving parts.

 

This is like saying "jumping off a cliff is safer than jumping into a volcano" and treating jumping off a cliff as a fine idea. Thermal expansion and contraction is only a single way heat can affect components. If all it was was that, thermal throttling options would not be nearly as robust as they are.

 

There's a chance of it being used overclocked, though.

Also, buying brand-new hardware means you get warranty, while buying second-hand means you get none and on your own if it breaks.

 

Yes, but that applies to all used graphics cards not just mining cards.

 

All USED cards.

If it is used it could've been overclocked, repaired bunch of times, might've been reballed and possibly hold some hidden defect you won't find until a few weeks later.

The reason why people are wary of ex-miner cards is because they generally worked for more hours than a normal GPU.

Basically, you aren't playing Cyberpunk 24/7/365, it doesn't maintain 100% load 24/7/365, but mining card does.

So it is kinda like a difference between two used cars of the same age - one with mileage of 50k and another with mileage of 300k.

 

Yeah, let's be realistic here. If you're mining you are likely mining 24/7. If you're gaming 12 hours a day every day, you are the exception, not the rule, and there is no way you're doing that 365 days a year realistically.

 

Exactly. And the 50k one is made up of a lot of little 20 mile trips while the 300k one has been doing cross country rally races with the pedal floored the whole time.

 

You clearly haven't bought a car from a little old lady that is moving into a retirement home. I remember my parents getting a Nissan sports car from one that was in excellent shape but had tons of miles because she liked to go out driving around town.

I thought I made it clear in my earlier post that I was referring to more than just gaming for the twelve hour period which in this community is much more than just an exception. Unless of course you're one of those people who buy a 3090 to make mobile games which would make you the exception.

 

Used hardware is bad because it's used? Who cares? Aside from warranty what's the practical downside here?

I know it potentially ran hotter and longer during its prior active use, but I've never seen or heard of most types of computer hardware failing or getting worse from age related issues. IT people who work with servers and/or workstation pools active 24/7 for years tell me the same. Aside from fans and mechanical hard drives, stuff tends to fail early in its life or not at all in it's useful life.

So assuming it's still in working order, what's the impact on daily use of second hand tech? Obviously the price should reflect a lack of support and reduced useful lifespan.

 

I bought a 3080 to play games. I also have a career (not in the gaming industry) and a family and many other hobbies. I think that's probably more common in the real world than someone who spends all day every day making and playing games.

 

Twelve hours is not all day. We're only talking four additional hours of some graphics heavy activity outside of a normal game development job and that's if we don't count crunch periods. It doesn't have to be gaming either.

Baking lightmaps is a graphics intensive workload that doesn't require you to be at your computer. Folding@home and SETI@home get mentioned here from time to time and they're graphics intensive.

If we count the entire world it may not be that common but then if we're taking everyone into consideration buying graphics cards outside of a complete system is a very uncommon activity too so I'm not counting everyone. I'm just counting enthusiasts.

 

Yes, and how many gamers work in game development day jobs as opposed to the number of gamers who don't? People who actually work on game development may not be a minority on this forum but in the real world, they definitely are.

Most people are lucky, after working 8+ hours at our (non gaming related) jobs, to have an hour at a time to play games between making dinner and putting the kids to bed. It's why the mobile/casual gaming market is so massive.

 

Like I mentioned in my edit of my post I'm not counting everyone in the world. First and foremost I'm counting people who would consider buying a used graphics card which is likewise counting people who are willing to perform DIY computer work. All of this is very uncommon.

 

Well, then perhaps in your specific and narrow use case, you're correct that there's no difference between a used card that was in a mining rig and one that wasn't... But that's far from universally true.

 

So please, when there is this supposed difference, what is it?

 

Well, modern hardware isn't exactly build to last forever, and instead is designed to work X hours. When you buy it used, you get X-N hours, where N is unknown. It is usually not designed to FAIL after X hours, but how long it is going to last is anyone's guess.

Well, I did experience failure due to age years ago I tried to assemble a used PC as cheap as possible for the heck of it. The total cost of the PC was I think about $30. That included everything, except keyboard. I even got a CRT.

This thing worked 6 months then motherboard died, likely due to faulty capacitor.

I also was lucky enough to experience a GPU death firsthand, when it starts covering screen with artifacts, eventually stops working with hardware acceleration, and even then displays distorted colors. The repair center said that they could try resoldering it, but it would be costly and won't guarantee that it will continue to work.

In case of computer parts fans/cooling, thermal paste/pad, capacitors will wear out. Over time. Soldering can fail, if there was water damage at some point it will continue eating the board and so on.

 

Some people have had success using an oven for this procedure.

https://www.ifixit.com/Guide/Tempor...raphics+Card+by+Heating+it+up+in+an+oven/2240

 

Yeah, I know. Back then I decided not to bother with that.

 

At minimum these GPUs will need the added cost of a complete fan replacement.

 

Of course. The thing is that as far as I know X is usually large enough for many years of constant use. I assume that'll vary for different components, but it's big enough I've never had to worry about it, even when purchasing second hand stuff.

But that's beside the point. I did acknowledge that price should account for this and for lack of support. It's second hand, that comes with the territory.

When it comes to actually using it, what's the difference?

 

Few years back I cooked myself two GPU cards.
One of them extended its life by many months. I think it was from my laptop, if I recall correctly.

Other card didn't went so well. But is worth to give a shot.

The recipe was however a bit different to the one from the link (2hrs).
Definitely it was shorter duration, I think even below 1 hour.

 

The difference you're getting a product with a shorter remaining lifetime and no safety net in case it breaks.

While the brand new one might be under warranty for 3 years.

It is possible to compensate for that with lower price, but I doubt that used cards will be sold at quartr or tenth of MSRP.

 

If market will be flooded with product (in this case second hand GPUs), prices will naturally drop.
Some may be coming with partial warranty as well. Is all about shopping about and being lucky, to find a good deal.

Of course, many will be trying to sell close to retail price.
I don't expect, in case such will happen, that people will be willing to hold for too long, as value will naturally drop over the time, as new models will be coming up to the market.

And not every GPU will be +3 years old. Big GPU craze was very recent event. Many may happen to be even under 1 year.
So plenty potential fish to hook about.

 

That's true. And frankly, partial warranty is something that slipped my mind. Though I'd need to rain check if it still applies after the device changes hands couple of times.

 

Yes this is valid concern.

 

I get that. My original question was: aside from warranty, what's the practical downside here?

In my experience, and anecdotally from IT people, I don't see a theoretically shorter lifespan as a practical issue. Lifespans are so long I just don't think it's worth considering. It's going to be too slow long before it's likely to actually die.

So what else is there? Higher temps? Noisier? Performance degradation?

 

I have observed performance degradation in my own personal testing but it's a very minor thing. For example my parents bought a Pentium 200 based computer about two decades ago. Initial testing showed it running at around 206MHz but near the end of its usable lifespan it was running around 199MHz.

Aside from that I haven't observed anything meaningful. I had a small shoebox full of HDDs ranging from 160 to 320 GB that were functioning practically as if they were new when I gave them away. I frequently upgrade old systems for people and I don't even have to replace the fans because they're still working a decade later.

I understand some devices are designed to have a shorter lifespan with one major example being appliances but I don't see this in either computers or their components. Neither the ones made for DIY use or the ones being used by OEMs. This includes some of the worst OEMs like eMachines and Packard Bell.

 

If it is untreated, it is likely to be noisier and higher temps.

The fan is a moving part, and thermal paste/pad is not eternal and can actually dry.

So, like hippo said, full fan replacement.

In my opinion, lifespans on modern tech are pathetic. Chips can be build to last 50 years, not 3-6.

The funny thing is I never actually had a HDD fail on me. Although there were some close calls. I swapped either 8 or 10 years old Barracude during last upgrade. SMART data implied that it was about to fail, and software that estimated failure date gave it 2 months to live.

 

Really, I was asking in case I'd missed anything. Because I haven't seen anything meaningful either. I'm entirely open to the fact that I could be missing stuff, though, because it's hard to know how much the perceived slowdown of "old" tech comes from software vs. psychological factors vs. the actual hardware itself.

Other than that, in this tangent I have a strong feeling that theoretical, potential issues are being treated as if they would be actual, definite issues. In about two decades of messing with and building PCs I've replaced two fans, ever, and I have components in daily use here which are well over 6 years old. The 3 to 6 year lifespan of chips isn't about when they're likely to fail, it's about when their owners are likely to discard them in favor of something new and shiny.

 

Yeah I've literally only ever replaced hardware for two reasons: Upgrading, or it was Dead on Arrival.

On a more topical note, just checking ebay Australia, the GPU I have - a 1080ti - is going second hand, Buy it Now, for around $1000 AUD.

I bought mine new for 1200AUD. This is just getting silly.

 

Yeah in 2015 I bought my GTX 980 for around $400 USD. They currently go for just under $400 USD on ebay here. It is just ridiculous.