Is GPU shortage actually getting worse?

Yeah completely agree. That's why it's a none issue that Tesla have stopped accepting Bitcoin as payment. Nobody in their right mind would buy a depreciating asset like a car with an appreciating asset like crypto anyway.

 

You should both speak to a financial advisor.

I think a common consensus is that you shouldn't hold your personal wealth in a single asset class whether that be cash at one extreme or crypto at another.
A diverse portfolio is best, with risk suited to your circumstances, and a qualified advisor can help with that.

Bitcoin for example has seen a four fold USD value increase in the last year, but equally the bear markets are really rough as well, so the volatility certainly isn't for everyone!

But yeah, even if its relatively low risk equity markets or property, make your money work for you and not the bank!

 

I'm not a financial advisor but if your goal is to simply toss the money into an account and have it grow at a higher percentage than most banks provide I recommend an ETF like SPDR. SPDR is an ETF for the S&P 500 which is the 500 largest companies of the US stock markets. It's one of the safest ways to invest.

 

Slightly related to neginfinity's post above, I'd personally love for my money to be actually IN the economy in some sense, actually being useful, rather than something like stocks (which I consider kind of bs ever since dividends were abandoned) or gold. Actually took a look earlier after my comment earlier and saw something called a "Real Estate Investment Trust" which seems interesting.

More related to the thread topic, I saw this earlier today, hinting that perhaps for nVidia at least new cards might be less viable for mining. If that really works our old cards will become even more valuable. Doesn't resolve the chip issue, but it does mitigate one demand source.

 

In sweden we have a saying, do not put all your eggs in one basket

 

If the companies of an ETF like SPDR were to fail there would be no one willing to take your eggs.

 

how's that value store doing, sport

 

The interesting thing about when crypto falls, is it falls really hard. I theorize this is because there is no inherit value to crypto. With a stock, there is the value of the company, its products and revenue, its services, its IP, which even in a worst case have some value. The value of a fiat government issued currency is related to the country's economy. The value of crypto though is entirely based on other people agreeing to assign it value. People aren't generally getting wages in crypto, there are few businesses which do sales only in crypto. So there isn't anything to give crypto a soft landing when it falls.

 

It's almost like the regulations that are in place are actually there to ensure the upward mobility of capital.

 

Most regulations created under the guise of protecting the little guy, do the opposite. Instead of protecting the little guy, they create a barrier to entry, effectively protecting the big guys from the little guy. This is because the cost of compliance with regulations in money and time are not much different between the little guy and the big guys, while the big guys can absorb it much more easily.

Counterintuitively, big business loves it when their industry gets new tougher regulations. They get better protection against upstarts.

 

---

 

Currently seeing 3080s for $4000. It is possible to buy a car for this.
And there are 1650s at double of MSRP.
Looks like everything with 6+gb of VRAM has been gobbled up.

There were also rumors that NVidia might produce reduced hashrate GPUs in the future.

 

No rumour anymore.

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/05/18/lhr/

 

I'm honestly wondering how are they going to block an algorithm on a general purpose device. Because this reminds me too much of a halting problem.

 

Similar to the 1060, it's a driver level solution. Hopefully this isn't undone by just plugging an HDMI cable into the card like it is there.

 

Sounds like this is going to be incredibly unreliable.

 

No. It's simply undone by using a driver without the limiter. In fact one exists for the 3060.

https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/...leases-rtx-3060-driver-with-no-mining-limiter

Furthermore it only limits a single cryptocurrency algorithm.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/18/...-ethereum-mining-drivers-limit-cryptocurrency

 

Completely unrelated question...what made you decide on that name? Nothing in your game's blurb implies to me it has anything to do with the formation of landmasses. Just a coincidence, or a plot twist in the game?

 

In Geology elluvium is the remenants left behind (of a certain process) the games story plays vaguely in to this as its about a society left behind. Illuvium is an alternate spelling that rolled better of the tongue. Mostly it just sounded like a good fit.

 

Alright, thanks.

 

Store of value means you don't worry about what's happening to the market on any given day, its about long term returns.
This is true of any investment, the only people that worry about short term volatility are day traders, which is something else entirely.

The US stock market has a long history of good returns over a long time.
Crypto has the best four-year returns of any asset class in history (but has extreme volatility over shorter time scales).
But a thousand dollars today will definitely be worth less ten years from now, which is why people tend not to hold cash.

However, the reason many retail traders don't make money is because its very difficult not to worry when you see your investments go down short term.
Hence why for most people its a good idea to let someone else manage it for you, because it takes a lot of the emotion out of it.

As I said before, investing in crypto tech has very little to do with it directly replacing USD and being able to use it in a supermarket instead of cash.
For example, the Ethereum network is being widely adopted for all sorts of practical DeFi uses, such as smart contracts.
Therefore it has value because the number of users is going up all the time and there's huge scope for that to continue over the next decade and beyond.

Its all about how much risk you are willing to take in the end. When people look at the gains over time of companies like Apple and Facebook and say "if only I invested x years ago I'd have made x amount". Of course that's easy to say after the event!

However that people that really made a killing are those that exposed themselves to higher risk when the asset was volatile and it wasn't necessarily obvious that it was going to be huge. Volatile markets like crypto are those that offer the higher rewards, but have the greater risk, which I guess is how it should be really.

 

Cool, except this isn't some single market fluctuation and trying to pass it off as one is hilarious. The reason the crash happened isn't some one-off thing but the inevitability that all cryptocurrency would have to face: regulation. This isn't a crash because Elon tweeted that he's going to turn the moon into a computer that only mines Eth2, but because China went "hey actually F*** this."

And they're not going to be the last.

This is the one thing that was always going to undo crypto, and it completely undermines it as a value store or as a transactional currency.

 

China have announced a ban on financial institutions from dealing in crypto practically every year. It's not actually new law, but it's a repeated story that does cause nice temporary price dips

In 2013 they "banned Bitcoin" and the price dropped from over $1000 to about $150, also due to other negative news, a bit like what's happening at the moment.
Even with the recent dips its currently about $40000.
But did lots of short term retail investors panic sell near the bottom in 2013? Of course they did.

To give some perspective, Amazon fell 95% when the dot com bubble burst. But it was still a great idea not to sell it for $5 because its now worth over $3000
Gold dropped 40% over 3 years from 1996, but there's still an upward long term trend. Nobody was saying gold is dead in the late 90s (or maybe they did!?).

Crypto regulation by the West is good though! It means more and more big institutions are getting in.
There will likely be crypto ETFs in the US announced later this year. Imagine how much money will come in then.
(They already exist in Canada and elsewhere).

These huge dips scare off the average investor though, I completely get that, and its not for everyone. But that's the risk you take if you see the value potential.

In ten years time Bitcoin may be worth nothing, or it may have the market cap of gold (which would roughly make 1 BTC = $500,000 USD). Nobody knows, you just have to do your own research and follow your own convictions. But do look beyond the headlines, because they aren't always what they seem.

You pay your money and take your chances (or not!)

 

Yeah, you really didn't pay attention to the difference between this situation and last.

This is a bad value store due to the sheer volatility and the nature of what will happen to unregulated markets, but the markets being unregulated are also why they're a terrible store in the first place.

 

It's essentially gambling at this point. I know some will object to that (mostly people who have a lot of money riding on it) but that's the reality. There are way too many unknowns and pretty much zero "fundamentals"

 

Stock market is also gambling.

 

I kind of agree with you, but they're typically backed by companies producing goods or services.

 

Ever heard of bubbles? Like the dot com bubble?
It can happen on smaller scale too, like single entities

Edit: in fact it's a old thing, Google tulip bubble

 

Sure, but fundamentally, stocks are tied to companies producing goods. Given enough time the market adjusts to what is, presumably, the value that those companies provide. All of the "value" I've seen described for crypto is either speculative or very esoteric.

It doesn't take multiple minutes to explain what product Cat, Microsoft, and Ford provide, how it even works, and give elaborate justifications for why it can't be done with something simpler.

 

Not really. Most people treat it that way, but there are things you can look at which can, on average, be used as predictors of a company's behavior. How much debt does a company carry? What physical assets does it hold? What are its greatest expenses? What are the threats to its market? And so on.

Yes, market perception can absolutely affect the value of companies or the market as a whole but it's one of many factors.

With crypto, there is not much like this. As was pointed out before, the only thing that really determines its value is market perception.

 

My last post was trying to demonstrate that if you are a long term investor, short term volatility doesn't matter, whether its gold, FAANG stocks, or crypto, or something else.
You actually want the volatility so you can buy dips instead of having to go in at the top, because it reduces your initial risk. It's a good thing!
The only thing that matters as a store of value is whether it goes up over a long time, because cash is guaranteed to lose value over the same time.

I'm not suggesting that people should or shouldn't invest in anything specifically, I'm just trying to emphasize why people do, as a preference to holding cash, even if its something simple like a pension.

I personally don't think this crypto crash is anymore significant than all the other "end of crypto" crashes that have happened previously. (And there have been loads).
Just like I didn't think it was the end of Unity when their share price fell from 170s to 80s for no real reason.
Quite the opposite, these events are when to get fair value instead of riding an upward trend.

I mean, it may seem obvious now what Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook are.
But think about it, there was a time when most people would have struggled to understand the potential of these companies and what they did.
Of course, that's when you had most to gain by investing in them, arguably a bit like crypto now.

Some cryptos have tangible real world application that is being adopted at a very fast pace, but it's still in its infancy, so there is opportunity if you are willing to take on some risk.
(But obviously do your own research and come to your own conclusions, or speak to a qualified pro).

 

Unity is backed by something that holds actual value.

 

By that criteria of gambling everything is gambling, even holding cash in a savings account. In that case you're gambling on the inflation rate.

 

I hope so!

But I think it's strange to argue Unity has value and crypto doesn't when its possible to integrate DeFi with Unity, which has huge potential for gaming among other things.
I mean there are literally Ethereum SDKs for Unity to help developers get started, but it's still at an early stage (hence the investment opportunity).

Bitcoin was just the beginning for DeFi. There's a lot of exciting tech that's come from that, much of it has the potential to impact the Unity space in some way.

So I think it's worth keeping an eye on, even if Bitcoin is a fad and the magic internet money will disappear one day.
I think crypto and DeFi definitely isn't going anywhere, its just a case of backing the right one.
Easier said than done though, of course!

 

Unity already went to bed with crypto once, I'm not sure it would do their image the world of good to jump in again, particularly as they just went public. Their shareholders will not allow it, thankfully.

Crypto will not be a thing until the energy requirements backing it are fixed. This is obvious.

 

I'm not sure what past collaborations you are referring to, but there are blockchain SDKs on the Unity Asset Store at the moment and you can write on top of Ethereum using C#.

Proof Of Stake (eg. Cardano, etc) helps with environmental concerns compared to Proof Of Work.
So these things are being addressed if you look beyond the headline scare stories, that's why there is so much potential.

But its precisely because not everyone knows about these things that gives them high value investment potential when (and if) they get adopted more widely.
Obviously, once everyone agrees something has value its much harder to get a good deal. Buying Google shares now wont make you rich, you had to do it when people thought you were bonkers!

But DeFi + Unity definitely has potential. Whether that potential gets filled is anyone's guess.
As a Unity shareholder I'll be watching with interest

 

Everything has potential, but most things never reach their potential.

Hence the potential is meaningless.

 

Every software developer including you understands the concept of potential to see a possible end result, otherwise they wouldn't be a software developer.

 

Eventually we will reach the point that the most popular cryptocurrencies can no longer be mined efficiently and that will eliminate the bulk of that number.

 

The problem with that is that it is always possible to create a new cryptopcurrency by cloning an existing one, in hopes of creating another gold rush.

 

Cryptocurrency gold rushes require that people are willing to put real money into it. I would think at some point the majority will be happy with the currencies they're using and not just want to transition to a new currency.

 

That is true, however, for example Ponzi Schemes are at least century old and people still fall for them.

Meaning there will (likely) be always a segment of people who would want to catch the rise of another bitcoin. That creates incentive for folks to create new cryptocurrencies....

I do think that the bulk of the ICO madness in the past, though.

 

How many years people could sell time shares for vacation homes?

 

Recent world situation shows, how the "real money" is artificial thing. Need more? Print more.
Sure there is an artificial inflation. But our daily currency in use, is as fake, as any crypto.
Backup in gold? Are you sure the largest world gold safe deposit won't be open tomorrow and find out it be empty?
Good luck to stocks.
Keping stocks of goods purposly low, to drive prices up.
What the heck means bancrupcy? Greece bail outs anyone?
Even oil stocks decade ago showed, how artificial prices of it are.
All is a game of big guys and speculants.
Elon Musk / Tesla and influence on crypto, or even share values of the company.
Speculants pumping on NFTS.
Sheep will always bite and follow blindly.
Some will utilise that behaviour of cource.

 

Looks like people are realising that money is just another word for resource management, which is another word for organising a planet of workers. You can't remove money without a replacement though.

Money will eventually be phased out as an idea, but only when there's world peace and prosperity, rendering it entirely redundant. At that point machines will do pretty much everything.

Assuming we get that far, and I don't think there's a high chance of that.

 

And assuming the machines haven't come to the realization that we're the root of the problem.

 

Now we know why there is no money in "Star Trek". The computers go so powerful that cryptocurrency reached a critical mass, achieved a singularity all its own, and consumed all money before vanishing to another galaxy to create a new civilization.

Or something.

 

I don't think this is really that far fetched at all.
Elon Musk is using semi-officially crypto, to support development for Mars colonization